Demands of world trade temper swine flu advice

AN assessment by the experts of how dangerous swine flu is and could become is full of question marks.

Nobody really knows if it could spread throughout the world, leaving a trail of death and destruction.

In the month since it first appeared, just over 800 cases have been reported with 20 deaths.

Pigs have infected humans, humans are now infecting humans, and in Canada a human has infected a herd of pigs.

On the one hand, the experts say, if it continues to spread, up to half the population could be affected, a third will show no symptoms at all, and the vast majority will recover completely. The death rate is unknown, though in the last two pandemics (Asian and Hong Kong Flu) one in 500 who got a bad dose died, while the figure for the Spanish Flu of 1918 is closer to six per 100.

The messages to the public have been confusing. The World Health Organisation raised the alert level as the number of countries reporting cases spread, but governments said there was no need to worry about travelling.

Just what is motivating the advice from governments is difficult to judge, but evidence suggests that politics and world trade are playing a big role. For instance, when the EU Health Commissioner ventured her personal opinion, and what would seem to be sensible advice, that it might be unwise to travel to the core affected area, the markets moved. There was widespread concern that such advice would affect world trade and impact on the already suffering airline industry in particular. Pig meat prices fell more than 10%, while China and Russia banned imports on the false basis that eating pork could spread the virus.

Europe’s health ministers were very anxious not to cause the same alarm, shunning the idea of banning flights. There were no plans to take any precautions over the 1,000 Irish people holidaying in Mexico at any one time.

EU health ministers are notoriously reluctant to cooperate, as they jealously guard their own country’s sovereignty over health. But, thanks to public fears over SARS and Bird Flu, they have been forced to work together, especially on sharing information about outbreaks and best practice for treatment.

Three years ago the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control opened its doors to coordinate information and create an EU-wide area of expertise. Updates on www.ecdc.eu

However, the issue of sharing medicines such as Tamiflu used to treat the flu virus was not even raised at the health ministers meeting during the week as, during the bird flu preparations, countries made it abundantly clear there would be no central EU stocks, and no sharing.

Nevertheless, the European Commission, in one area where they have power, has agreed to focus research funding on finding a vaccine to prevent swine flu.

The attention paid to preventing and dealing with flu pandemic threats is reassuring. But the contrast with, for instance, malaria, one of the world’s biggest killers raises questions about motivation. Most of the million people a year who die from it are children under five living in sub-Sahara Africa. The current drive to defeat it is struggling to raise sufficient funds. to do so.

Perhaps they need it to threaten world trade to raise the $5 billion (€3.76bn) a year they need finally to control it.