McCain in trouble but rain may fall on Obama’s parade

“THERE’S no question Mr McCain is in a difficult place,” wrote political strategist Karl Rove, explaining the odds against a candidate winning the White House who’s trailing in the polls like McCain is today.

“The question that matters is the margin,” Rove wrote in the Wall Street Journal. “If Mr McCain is down by 3%, his task is doable, if difficult. If he’s down by 9%, his task is essentially impossible.”

So it was good news for the Maverick when a Fox News poll announced he was only three points behind, but a broader look at the polls shows a dizzying array of numbers that predict Senator Barack Obama is leading by anywhere from 3 to 11 points. Gallup shows him up by 8 points and Investors Business Daily — the most accurate poll in 2004 — shows him up by 4.4 points, putting McCain not too far outside Rove’s comeback range.