McCain in trouble but rain may fall on Obama’s parade

“THERE’S no question Mr McCain is in a difficult place,” wrote political strategist Karl Rove, explaining the odds against a candidate winning the White House who’s trailing in the polls like McCain is today.

“The question that matters is the margin,” Rove wrote in the Wall Street Journal. “If Mr McCain is down by 3%, his task is doable, if difficult. If he’s down by 9%, his task is essentially impossible.”

So it was good news for the Maverick when a Fox News poll announced he was only three points behind, but a broader look at the polls shows a dizzying array of numbers that predict Senator Barack Obama is leading by anywhere from 3 to 11 points. Gallup shows him up by 8 points and Investors Business Daily — the most accurate poll in 2004 — shows him up by 4.4 points, putting McCain not too far outside Rove’s comeback range.

The state polls are no clearer. In Arizona, McCain is up 2 to 7 points. In Georgia, he’s up between 1 and 6 points and in North Dakota, he’s either 4 points down or 14 points up.

The only thing swinging faster than the mathematical chaos of the polls is the spin from both campaigns.

Obama snuck into McCain’s backyard with an advertising blitz that narrowed the Republican’s insurmountable lead to only 5 points — pushing the message, the Arizona senator is in so much trouble he could lose his own state.

The McCain camp swung back saying the Democrats have been lulled into overconfidence based on inaccurate polls and an assumption that young, first-time and African-American voters — critical to a Democratic win — will turn out in greater numbers than the Republican base.

They could be right.

Critics claim young, first- time voters are not being properly reflected in the survey results because as mobile phone users they don’t appear on traditional call lists. Others say they have no voting history, so no one knows if they will turn out.

Then there’s the elusive Bradley effect. The term — coined after the 1992 California race for governorwhen African-American Tom Bradley lost despite leading in polls — refers to a tendency on the part of white voters to say they’ll vote for a black candidate, but vote for the white man on election day.

At least 16 million voters in 30 states have already voted. Officials in Iowa, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and North Carolina said more Democrats than Republicans cast ballots.

These figures show who voted, not how they voted, but a Washington Post- ABC News tracking poll found 59% of those who said they had already voted were Obama supporters and 40% indicated they supported John McCain.

But in America, where all votes are not equal, it’s not the national polls or the popular vote that matters, but the Electoral College votes won in individual states.

In the critical swing states, Real Clear Politics shows Obama with a narrow 2.5-point lead in North Carolina, 3.5 in Florida, 6.5 in Virginia, and a shrinking 8.5-point lead in Pennsylvania. Significantly, he’s showing a 5.8-point lead in Ohio — the state no Republican candidate has ever taken the White House without.

Overall, RCP is predicting Obama will get 311 votes to McCain’s 132 with 95 votes still a toss up and 270 needed to win.

One forecast service is saying, “forget the electoral map look at the weather map”.

Weather.com cites a 2007 study that found rain significantly decreases Democratic voter turnout. This may be because Democrats tend to be less affluent than Republicans and live in cities.

The study claims Nixon would have beaten John F Kennedy in 1960 if the weather had been bad in seven closely contested states.

Tomorrow, while the McCain camp welcomes thunderstorms in Missouri, Obama is expected to be basking in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, where the forecast is sunshine all day.