Pollsters predict Obama set for landslide victory

ONE month ago Barack Obama’s historic bid for the White House looked jaded, now he is on the cusp of delivering his party’s most emphatic victory for 40 years.

Such was the mood- swing among Americans as the extent of the recent economic turmoil sank in.

In the fortnight since the $700 billion (€510bn) bailout was tabled, the presidential race ceased to be a statistical dead heat and became a looming embarrassment for the Republican party.

A slew of new swing- state polls have shown John McCain to be losing ground where he already trailed. Meanwhile, Obama has pulled level in states where McCain led.

Yesterday Karl Rove, the mastermind of George W Bush’s success, said Obama threatened to secure every traditional Democratic stronghold and change the allegiance of coveted Republican states.

“If the election were held now, Obama would win every state John Kerry won in 2004, while adding New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado to his coalition,” Rove said on his website.

Based on current figures, the pollster predicted Obama would reach the magic 270 electoral college votes (votes of state electors selected by popular vote), with seven population-rich states to spare.

And based on the recent trends, the Politico website predicts Obama would take 353 (of 538) electoral college votes, a figure not achieved since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victories for the Republicans in the 1980s.

Under the American system each state is given a set number of votes based on its population, the winner of each state takes all its votes.

It means small victories in many states can result in emphatic victories through the electoral college system.

However, Obama’s new lead comes with the caveat — in this campaign polls have been erratic.

On this day one month ago, McCain led Obama on every barometer. Voters will not cast their ballots for another four weeks when it could again swing back in McCain’s favour.