National unity government is Musharraf’s only hope

THE assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto has brought Pakistan’s state of turmoil to new heights. As head of the nation’s most popular political party, Ms Bhutto largely transcended Pakistan’s ethnic and sectarian divides.

Her return from exile in October was seen as a step toward curbing the country’s fragmentation; her murder shatters those hopes.

President Pervez Musharraf must take immediate steps — most importantly, the formation of a national unity government — to prevent Pakistan from tearing apart.

In deciding that her People’s Party would participate in the January parliamentary election, Ms Bhutto threw a lifeline to Mr Musharraf, who has been beset by multiple insurgencies, a nationwide terrorist threat, and rock-bottom legitimacy. Mr Musharraf and his supporters in Washington hoped that mainstream parties’ participation in the election would end Pakistan’s governance crisis and provide popular support for a decisive confrontation with the Taliban and al-Qaida.

Now, however, the election will likely be postponed. Indeed, Mr Musharraf might be compelled to impose emergency rule again, as he did in November, should Pakistan’s stability further deteriorate. There are reports of violence in cities across Pakistan. Karachi, a multi-ethnic metropolis, could erupt into full-scale chaos. During the 1990s, violence there between Ms Bhutto’s party and a local ethnic party took thousands of lives.

In these circumstances, a state of emergency could be warranted. But, given Mr Musharraf’s lack of legitimacy, such a move would further infuriate Ms Bhutto’s supporters.

This could set the stage for a violent confrontation.

The nightmare scenario envisioned by many in Pakistan — a nuclear-armed country actively targeted by al-Qaida and the Taliban — could become a reality.

Mr Musharraf must let go of partisan objectives and form a national unity government led by a prime minister from the opposition. Any subsequent measures, including temporary imposition of emergency rule and full-scale war against the terrorists, require the support of the opposition parties. Mr Musharraf and his allies cannot be seen as benefiting from the assassination; nor can they afford the perception of a cover-up.

A national unity government must assume three main responsibilities. First, it must establish an independent commission to determine who was responsible for Ms Bhutto’s murder.

Second, it must take measures to ensure public safety and political stability, while paving the way for free and fair elections. It must offer Pakistan a path toward winning back its tribal areas from the insurgents, end the wave of terror in its cities, and ensure the election of a legitimate government.

Finally, it must begin a dialogue with Mr Musharraf and the military on a separation of powers. If Ms Bhutto had become prime minister, she would likely have clashed with Mr Musharraf over his arbitrary empowerment of the presidency at the expense of the premiership.

Pakistan’s civil and military elite must create a broad consensus on the constitutional roles of the prime minister, president, and the military. Ravaged by endemic elite discord since its founding, Pakistan needs an elite reconciliation that includes all of the country’s important stakeholders. Otherwise, Pakistan’s terrorists, who feed off political instability, will continue to gain, while the country’s poor majority lose ground.

The murder of Ms Bhutto need not result in the country’s demise. Pakistan’s elite have an opportunity to unite in opposition to militants, and transform their failing state into a stable and prosperous democracy. If they succeed in bringing about a national renewal, Ms Bhutto will not have died in vain.

Arif Rafiq, a policy and communications consultant, edits the Pakistan Policy Blog www.www.pakistanpolicy.com