Iraq religious leaders primed for electoral success

Robin Wright sees US plans for the future of Iraq backfiring.

LEADERS of Iraq's religious parties have emerged as the country's most popular politicians and would win the largest share of votes if an election were held today.

Meanwhile, the US-backed government of interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi is losing serious ground, according to a US-financed poll by the International Republican Institute.

More than 45% of Iraqis also believe their country is heading in the wrong direction, and 41% say it is moving in the right direction.

Within the Bush administration, a victory by Iraq's religious parties is viewed as the worst-case scenario.

Washington has hoped Mr Allawi and the current team, which was selected by US and UN envoys, would win or do well in Iraq's first democratic election, in January. US officials believe a secular government led by moderates is critical, in part because the new government will oversee writing a new Iraqi constitution.

"The picture it paints is that after all the blood and treasure we have spent and despite the (US-led) occupation's democracy efforts, we're in a position now that the moderates would not win if an election were held today," said a US official.

US officials acknowledge the political honeymoon after the handover of political power on June 28 ended much earlier than anticipated.

The new poll, based on 2,000 face-to-face interviews conducted among all ethnic and religious groups nationwide between September 24 and October 4, shows Iraqi support for the government has plummeted to about 43% who believe it is effective, down from 62% in a late-summer poll.

In another blow, one out of three Iraqis blames the US-led multinational force for Iraq's security problems, against the 32% who blame foreign terrorists, the poll shows. Only 8% blame members of the former government.

"We had convinced everyone - Americans and Iraqis- that things might change with the return of sovereignty, but, in fact, things went the other way," a congressional staff member said.

In positive news for the administration, the poll found 85% of Iraqis want to vote in the election.

The poll found the most popular politician is Abdel Aziz Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). The group was part of the US-backed opposition to Saddam Hussein and is now receiving millions of dollars in aid from Iran, US officials say.

Mr Allawi had the greatest name recognition of any politician, with 47% of Iraqis supporting him for a seat in the new parliament. Rebel Shi'ite cleric Moqtada Sadr came in a very close third, with 46% backing him for an assembly seat.