One-in-10 bird species in danger of extinction

MORE than one-in-10 of all bird species are likely to be extinct by the end of the century, scientists said yesterday.

Another 15% could be on the brink of disappearing before the year 2100, according to a new study by American researchers.

The loss of so many birds is expected to have a negative impact on forest ecosystems and agriculture worldwide. It may also encourage the spread of human diseases, it is claimed.

Dr Cagan Sekercioglu, who led the Stanford University scientists in California, said: “Our projections indicate that, by 2100, up to 14% of all bird species may be extinct and that as many as one out of four may be functionally extinct - that is, critically endangered or extinct in the wild.

“Important ecosystem processes, particularly decomposition, pollination and seed dispersal, will likely decline as a result.”

The findings follow the November 2004 Global Species Assessment by the World Conservation Union (IUCN), which found that 12% of all bird species are already threatened with extinction.

Nearly a quarter of the world’s mammals, a third of amphibians and 42% of turtles and tortoises were also in danger.

The latest forecast from Dr Sekercioglu’s team appeared yesterday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The scientists wrote: “Even though only 1.3% of bird species have gone extinct since 1500, the global number of individual birds is estimated to have experienced a 20% to 25% reduction during the same period.

“Given the momentum of climate change, widespread habitat loss and increasing numbers of invasive species, avian declines and extinctions are predicted to continue unabated in the near future.”

The study was based on a detailed analysis of all 9,787 living and 129 extinct bird species.

Eight researchers spent a year collecting data on the conservation, distribution, ecological function and life history of every species.

The total information gathered amounted to over 600,000 computer entries.

The intermediate scenario indicated that one-in-10 species will have vanished a century from now, and that about 1,200 species would be functionally extinct.

Habitat loss, disease, climate change, competition from introduced species and exploitation for food or the pet trade were among the reasons given for the expected declines.

The researchers said a third to a half of all oceanic island species were likely to be extinct or on the brink of extinction by 2100.

Birds with highly specialised diets were predicted to be among the hardest hit.