France, Russia signal they may go with war flow

DEAD set in public against a strike on Iraq, veto-wielding Security Council members France and Russia are showing signs they will go with the flow if it comes to war — but Germany may have to stick with its “no”.

Surveys show public opposition to war against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has hardened in Europe, including in Britain, Washington’s closest ally.

But analysts say there is an impetus pushing the waverers towards a conflict which is being generated, ironically, by UN Security Council Resolution 1441, the very mechanism they hoped would stall the march to war.

“Those who had doubts about this war are now constrained by the process which was launched in the Security Council,” said Barry Posen at the Transatlantic Centre in Brussels.

“The Americans are essentially arguing law now: ‘this was the resolution...we all agreed to it, we set up a series of hoops Saddam has to jump through and he's not doing it’.”

Resolution 1441 warns of “serious consequences” if Saddam does not give up alleged weapons of mass destruction.

While France, Russia and Germany say UN weapons inspectors should have more time, Washington and

London argue that since chief weapons inspectors Hans Blix has faulted Iraq for failing to cooperate actively with his mission it is already in breach of the resolution.

In his State of the Union address yesterday morning, US President George W Bush promised to deliver new intelligence on Iraq’s alleged weapons programmes. It was an offer America’s allies immediately welcomed because, analysts say, it might provide the “smoking gun” to justify a change of mind at home.

Russian President Vladimir Putin adopted a markedly sharper tone this week after Blix’s report to the Security Council, warning it could toughen its stance towards Iraq unless Baghdad allowed the inspectors to do their work.

The Kommersant daily, in a commentary printed before Bush’s address, said those comments showed Russia was prepared to bring its position closer in line with Washington. Alexander Pikayev, an analyst at the Moscow office of the Carnegie

Endowment think-tank, said Putin had confirmed Russia’s position that it will not defend Saddam at any price and that he must fulfil the provisions of resolution 1441.