Kennedy deals Labour and Tories severe blow

THE spin doctors cannot spin themselves out of this one. Nor is there any way the figures can be massaged to cushion the massive body blows the Liberal Democrats have inflicted on Tony Blair and Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith in the Brent East by-election.

Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy said yesterday the result in Brent East in north London, where his 29-year-old candidate Sarah Teather recorded a 29% swing to overturn Labour's General Election majority of 13,047, was a "great fillip" for the party.

Ms Teather inflicted the first by-election defeat on Labour for 15 years. While cock-a-hoop Charles Kennedy leads his party in triumph to its conference in Brighton next week, Blair and Duncan Smith will be wondering how their own political prospects could get any bleaker.

Political pundits are often accused, usually rightly, of overstating the significance of by-election results. But in this case it is difficult to exaggerate the scale of the political fall-out.

The prime minister's aides are describing the result as "disappointing", which must be the understatement of the year.

There is little doubt the disclosures from the Hutton inquiry into the death of Dr David Kelly have gravely damaged the reputations of the government and the prime minister.

The evidence has, rightly or wrongly, left the overwhelming impression among the electorate of wheeling and dealing, buck-passing and half-truths in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath.

It might be an exaggeration to say that Blair's days are now numbered at 10 Downing Street, but much damage has been done to him personally. The public perception is now that his case for going to war is weakening almost on a daily basis.

Speaking after the result, Mr Blair who saw the bookmakers cut the odds on him leaving office ahead of the next general election acknowledged the need to listen to voters' concerns and explain controversial policies.

The Tories, knocked into third place in a constituency where they came second in the 2001 general election, sought to focus on the scale of Labour's reverse.

But former Tory cabinet minister David Mellor, whose disillusionment with Mr Duncan Smith prompted him to let his membership lapse, said the result demonstrated that the Tories "have no future while Iain Duncan Smith remains leader".