SARS could return, warn health experts

SARS could return later this year but is unlikely to be on the scale of an epidemic, leading public health experts said yesterday.

There are several reasons why severe acute respiratory syndrome could reappear this autumn and winter, the experts said.

Doctors and public health experts should not be complacent about the risks.

An international panel of nine public health experts were asked by the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health about the chances of SARS recurring.

Among the nine, three felt it would reappear; four were uncertain, and two said they felt it would not recur.

The general consensus was that doctors and health officials could not afford to be complacent about the likelihood of SARS recurring.

They pointed out that SARS belongs to the corona virus family and such infections tend to peak during the colder months.

This fits with the decline of reported cases as the warmer weather appeared the last being in Taiwan on June 15.

In addition, the source of SARS has not been fully identified, although is thought it might have come from civet cats and racoon dogs in China.

It is possible there could still be a potential reservoir of infection among animals which could again spread to humans.

Because the infection in humans is so recent, no immunity will have been built up, and it is not known if the infection has been completely wiped out in people.

The experts said it has not been proved that measures such as face masks, home quarantine and restricting public events are effective in controlling the spread of SARS.

But it is clear that effective isolation and early detection of the disease do prevent transmission.

They said there was cause for optimism as many of those countries affected by previous outbreaks now have heightened surveillance systems.

But they warned that this was not always possible in countries with less developed healthcare systems andresources.