Smart money on Ali to stay with Blair

IN the early days after Tony Blair was swept into Downing Street, a Fleet Street photographer was dispatched to get a picture of the new prime minister and his wife “at home”.

The snapper had just finished lining up the couple for a particularly cheesy, nose-to-nose shot when Alastair Campbell burst through the door and demanded: "What the hell do you think you are doing?" The photographer snapped to attention, expecting a rollicking from Ali, only to realise the remark was not aimed at him, but at the prime minister.

On a separate occasion shortly after that 1997 victory, Alastair was asked during an off-the-record press briefing if he could really do such and such a thing to a civil servant the details don't matter. He turned to one of his assistants and, with a knowing grin, declared: "We can do what we like now, can't we."

Oh how we laughed! But that is exactly why Alastair Campbell, the prime minister's official spokesman, won his title as "the real deputy prime minister". He is seen as the one man with the possible exception of Peter Mandelson who the prime minister simply cannot do without. Tony Blair, it is said, is happy to do as Ali says, because of his obvious skills in presentation and in dealing with the media. He was, and remains, the spin master supreme and, as even cabinet ministers quickly discovered, holds sway across Whitehall. When Ali speaks, Tony is speaking. Indeed it is regularly claimed, when Tony speaks, it is Ali's voice we hear.

Of course, it was bound to go horribly wrong at some point. And now, with Tony Blair facing a major crisis over claims he deliberately spun Britain into war on Iraq, some of the chickens are coming home to roost. Much of the criticisms being levelled at the prime minister and Mr Campbell over allegedly doctoring intelligence reports to suit their policy are encouraged by the now widespread belief that spin has become an all-encompassing, institutionalised habit. Mr Campbell has given a robust and convincing defence of his position to a powerful parliamentary committee. It will be up to the MPs on the Foreign Affairs Select Committee to decide whether or not they believe him.

They will find it difficult not to be influenced by Mr Campbell's record. And that dates back to those early days of media manipulation. Spin was fine in opposition, understandable in the early years of government, but totally counter-productive as the New Labour government matured and the prime minister learned to fly solo.

"All spin and no substance" was the insult most regularly hurled at ministers. However, as things became more serious (over issues like "Cheriegate" and war), the opposition stopped pulling its punches and started simply stating that the government lied. And it became increasingly clear that voters often had trouble trusting what the prime minister said. Clearly the spin had to stop.

Alastair retreated to the backrooms at Downing Street, though there was little sign he had stopped doing his job. What no one could ever accuse Ali of, however, would be disloyalty, either to the Labour Party or to his bosses. His behaviour over the allegations about the war are a classic example. He was not only defending himself, he was also fiercely defending his boss. Before Tony Blair, he was fiercely loyal to Neil Kinnock during his term as Labour leader. He easily extended that loyalty to Mr Blair.Indeed, his famous punch up with the political editor of the Guardian, Michael White, was often put down to loyalty. It came when Alastair was political editor of the Daily Mirror and on the day his proprietor, Robert Maxwell, died after falling off his yacht. Mr White was one of a long list of hacks who could not resist poking fun at the disappearance of the much-hated proprietor gleefully rechristening him Bob, bob, bob Maxwell.

It was a jibe too far and Ali lashed out in what many put down to a spontaneous display of misplaced offence on his boss's behalf. Actually, it was more like irritation at being constantly interrupted while on the phone to his news editor at a stressful time. Still, it spoke volumes about Ali's short fuse which was regularly on show when he briefed journalists.He arrived in Downing Street after a very successful career in newspapers, and a time writing erotic fiction for a men's magazine. Like many in the business, he developed a drink problem and openly talks about his "breakdown" which led him to give up the booze. He moved from his job with the Mirror to become Tony Blair's spokesman while in opposition.

He continued after the landslide election victory in 1997 and immediately extended his tentacles into every area of Whitehall. Most lately, he has been blamed for a number of PR disasters for the government, including the saga over an aide to former Transport Secretary Stephen Byers suggesting September 11 was "a good day to bury bad news". It had become increasingly clear that, amongst sections of the media and the Labour Party itself, the knives were out for him.He also has some powerful enemies within the same group of journalists he once rubbed shoulders with. Most accord him respect and, those who have known him longest, are ready to engage in his roughhouse style.

Less experienced ones sometimes find themselves intimidated. Recently there have been persistent reports that he and his partner, Fiona Miller, who works as Cherie Blair's aide, are planning to quit Downing Street. That seems highly unlikely, as it would require a lapse in his famous loyalty.

For him to go now, with his master in serious mid-term trouble, it would be written up as the rat leaving the sinking ship. The betting is he will still be there, practising his dark arts, for a little while yet.

* Nick Assinder is a political correspondent with BBC News Online.