Zimbabwe census sees flight of whites

Michael Hartnack, Harare

The figure has continued to drop since the census was conducted in August 2002 amid the seizure of thousands of white-owned commercial farms for redistribution to black Zimbabweans.

Independent analysts estimate fewer than 30,000 whites remain.

The so-called fast-track land reform, coupled with years of drought, has crippled Zimbabwe’s agriculture-based economy. Inflation has soared to 254.8%, unemployment is over 70% and an estimated 4 million people are in need of food aid in what was once a regional breadbasket.

Initial results of the 2002 census published in December of that year showed that 3-4 million Zimbabweans had fled the country as economic refugees, bringing the total population down to below 12 million.

A detailed analysis of the results was completed recently and made available to the state-owned Herald newspaper, which published the findings.

Independent journalists were not given a copy.

Among the findings were that whites numbered just 46,743 in 2002, The Herald reported. Nearly 10,000 of them were over the age of 65, and less than 9,000 were under 15.

The white population peaked at 293,000 in 1974. White rule ended in 1980.

Other African nations, including Mozambique and Nigeria, have welcomed Zimbabwe’s experienced white farmers in the hopes they can help boost commercial agricultural production.

But Zimbabwe officials have appeared undisturbed by the dwindling population.

Didymus Mutasa, now head of the country’s feared Central Intelligence Organisation, told the BBC at the time of the census that he would be happy to see Zimbabwe’s population halved.

“We would be better off with only six million people, with our own people who supported the liberation struggle. We don’t want all these extra people,” he said.

Other findings included a rise in the death rate from 11 out of every 1,000 people a year after independence from Britain in 1980 to 17.2 in 2002, The Herald reported.

Analysts blame the country’s ageing population and a surging HIV/AIDS epidemic now estimated to be claiming at least 3,000 lives a week.

Fertility rates, however, were about half their 1980 level, with each woman bearing an average 3.6 children.

“The major reason for this drop is the measures taken soon after independence to ensure all children, including all girls, had access to full education, coupled with the development of a wide and effective primary health care network,” The Herald said.

Aid agencies say family planning has been widely accepted in Zimbabwe, despite significant drops in the quality of health care and in school enrolment in recent years due to the country’s deepening economic crisis.

Last week, Finance Minister Herbert Murerwa slashed spending on health and education to fund reconstruction of homes and businesses destroyed in a widely condemned slum clearance campaign.

It was unclear whether HIV/AIDS, which strikes hardest at people in their prime reproductive years, may also be contributing to the drop in fertility rates.

Zimbabwe’s next census is due in 2012.