Dutch vote could be final nail in constitution coffin

THE Dutch are expected to put the final nail in the coffin of the European Constitution today by following the French example and voting overwhelmingly against it.

There are fears this it will trigger the dreaded domino effect making a no vote more likely in other countries including Ireland, Denmark, the Czech Republic and Poland. There are signs too that Britain is getting ready to call off its vote.

This is expected to slam the brakes on the EU’s efforts for greater integration and trigger a crisis about the future direction of the union.

The Dutch no vote is expected to be around 60% when polls close at 8pm Irish time, even higher than the 55% in France.

However, Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende has said neither he nor his government will resign following the first referendum in the country’s history. “The vote is on the treaty, not on me,” he said yesterday.

The government spent about 4 million on a last-ditch campaign and the prime minister made a desperate appeal to people not to be swayed by the French vote.

But Foreign Minister Bernard Bot admitted defeat in a TV interview yesterday: “We had hoped for a neck-and-neck race, but it looks as if it is going to be a no vote.”

The referendum is a consultative one but the government has said it will respect the result if more than 30% of the electorate votes.

But, as in France, a rejection by the Netherlands, one of the six founding members of the Union, will have little to do with the constitution itself which was designed to streamline how the expanded Union functions and increase democratic accountability.

No voters say they are concerned over immigration, losing their sovereignty and the fact that they are the largest payers per person into the EU kitty.

Some fear Europe is expanding too much and too fast into a superstate. Others say Holland will lose control over liberal policies like euthanasia and marijuana, or its tough limitations on immigration.

Unlike the French referendum which is binding, the Dutch poll is advisory, and the parliament has the final say on ratification. Though the vast majority of parliament members favour the treaty, the major parties have agreed to honour the referendum’s results as long as the turnout tops 30%.

Aurore Wanlin, an analyst with the London-based Centre for European Reform, said the EU leaders meeting in Brussels in mid-June are unlikely to pronounce the treaty dead.

“They don’t want to create a sense of panic,” she said.

But “when two member founding states vote no, it looks like a big crisis,” she said, warning of a potential domino effect in the six countries that may still hold referendums.

So far, nine countries have ratified the constitution: Austria, Hungary, Italy, Germany, Greece, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Slovenia by votes of their parliaments; and Spain by a referendum.

Taoiseach Bertie Ahern will discuss the crisis with the current EU president, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean Claude Juncker, when they meet in Luxembourg today.