Saddam aims to inflict heavy casualties to break morale of US

A DECADE after the “mother of all battles” that never came, Saddam Hussein’s regime says American soldiers who dare to invade will face “rivers of blood” and “disgraceful failure.”

Now that a new UN Security Council resolution to strip Iraq of illicit weapons is in place, the clock is ticking for a US led war that could make Saddam live up to or eat his words.

While Saddam still has a large army at his disposal, Arab military leaders who have seen that army in action believe he will be forced to fight with a more limited force trying to draw US troops into urban warfare in Baghdad and hitting them with chemical or biological weapons wherever he can.

Saddam's goal will be to inflict as many casualties as possible in an effort to break Washington's will, experts say.

"With each coffin he sends back home, he will send thousands of protesters into Washington's streets," said retired Egyptian General Hossam Sweilem, a military analyst familiar with Iraq's army.

For their part, US and allied forces will be trying to isolate Saddam and hasten a collapse of his government.

Pentagon planners are believed to be building a force of about 200,000-250,000 troops to take part in the war against Iraq. The assault would begin with a heavy air campaign as did the 1990-91 Gulf War and the war in Afghanistan.

Next would come a quick seizure of bases in northern, western and southern Iraq from which US and allied forces could operate. A key early objective would be to cut off the Iraqi leadership in Baghdad.

In theory at least, Saddam's army would outnumber US led forces.

Some analysts believe the Iraqi army is still a formidable force of about 400,000 active soldiers, 2,200 tanks and 8,000 other armoured vehicles and an air force of over 300 combat planes as well as battle experience with surface to surface missiles.

But that's on paper. Anthony Cordesman, an American defence expert, wrote in a study for the International Institute of Strategic Studies that while the army has carried out "significant" ground force exercises, it lacks training and hasn't shown it can protect its land forces with missile or air defences.

A bigger question may be the army's morale, according to retired General Mohammed Ali Belal, commander of Egyptian army units in the coalition that expelled Iraq from Kuwait and an adviser to Iraqi troops in the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. He predicted that Saddam will not rely fully on the regular army because he does not trust its commanders and believes they might switch sides in a war.

"Even if Saddam commits the army, it will collapse even faster than it did during the Gulf War because the Iraqi army has no appetite to defend Saddam," he said.

Gen Belal also said Iraq's regular troops lack training and advanced weapons and will realise "it will be futile to fight against such a formidable and committed army."

According to Mr Cordesman's study, the defence of Baghdad will depend on the Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard both specially trained in urban warfare as well as security troops, secret police, intelligence services and a corps of thugs known as Saddam's Fedayeen, or Saddam's guerrillas.

These loyalists may stand up for Saddam simply because they will not easily find a place in Iraqi society once he is driven from power.

Taken together their numbers would amount to over 100,000, including Republican Guard troops north and south of the capital, a city of five million people. Most of these troops are commanded by loyalists from Saddam's home district of Tikrit.

In a sign that Saddam is preparing for a last stand in Baghdad, he has not called up reserves or built up defences in northern and southern Iraq, as he did in past wars. US sources said in August that Iraqi forces were digging positions around Baghdad for tanks, artillery and troops in the biggest build-up since the Gulf War.