China not prepared for SARS meltdown

CHINA, where the government has admitted the number of SARS cases in Beijing is far higher than had been disclosed previously, may be facing a "very big outbreak" in the provinces, the World Health Organisation said yesterday.

"If you do not have the resources to deal with SARS, I think we're going for a very big outbreak in China," said Henk Bekedam, the WHO representative in China.

"I think it will be quite a challenge to contain SARS within China, especially those provinces which have very limited resources," he said.

"We hope that the provinces will be ready," he said.

"Otherwise you might have in all the provinces at least 100 cases, and then you can make up the arithmetic."

China, which has 31 provinces, regions and major cities, admits its health care system is poor in the countryside where 70% of its 1.3 billion people live.

Premier Wen Jiabao, in a speech made last week and published yesterday, said the system was so inadequate an epidemic could spread "before we know it" and "the consequences could be too dreadful to contemplate."

SARS cases have now appeared in various parts of China including the northern region of Inner Mongolia, the eastern province of Zhejiang and Guangdong and Guangxi in the south.

A day after the government said Beijing had under-reported its numbers dramatically raising the number cases tenfold to 339 Bekedam also said the Chinese capital could have many more SARS victims in its hospitals. The WHO believed half the 402 cases the Beijing authorities classify as suspected SARS could be the real thing, he said.

The disease which has killed 209 people and infected nearly 3,900 in 25 countries is still spreading, with the Philippines saying it may have suffered its first case, a nurse home on holiday.

She had come from Canada, the only country outside Asia where people have died of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome since it appeared in southern China's Guangdong province in November.

Canadian health authorities said on Sunday that travellers on a suburban commuter train might have been exposed, sparking fears the virus could have spread beyond the medical community which has borne the brunt of the illness so far in the country.

It leapt from Guangdong to Hong Kong, the hardest hit place outside mainland China, which reported another six deaths from SARS taking its toll to 94, the highest in the world.

The disease, fatal in about five per cent of cases and which has no known cure, is also taking an economic toll as people shun airlines, in the knowledge travellers spread it around the world, and stay at home instead of going out shopping or dining.

Singapore Airlines said its SilkAir regional carrier would cut more flights in May, taking its total reduction in services to 35 per week. China's flag carrier Air China said SARS had cut its passenger traffic by 20%.

Financial analysts have downgraded growth forecasts for most countries in East Asia outside of Japan, saying SARS would pose more of threat to Asian economic growth than the Iraq war.

Meanwhile, China cancelled the week-long May Day holiday to discourage people from travelling and spreading the disease.

Singapore, which has the world's fourth-highest number of cases, has quarantined up to 2,400 workers at a huge food market because three people who worked there contracted the virus.

In Beijing fear mixed with anger as state media, silenced for weeks as SARS spread, let the floodgates open after the government reported the higher numbers and the health minister and city's mayor were sacked for negligence.

The stunning increase in the number of deaths, from four to 18, and the tenfold rise in cases, appeared to back allegations that officials had tried to hide the extent of the disease.