Blair set for historic third term in power

Jon Smith

The Mori/NOP survey gives Labour a comfortable majority with the Conservatives getting 209 seats and the Liberal Democrats 53.

The prediction forecasts that Labour will win a 37% share of the national vote, with the Tories on 33% and the Lib Dems on 22%.

The poll gives Labour a total of 356 seats down from 409 in the last parliament, taking its majority down from 161 to 66.

The 209 prediction for the Tories would be a gain of 45 seats.

Charles Kennedy's Liberal Democrats would see their number of seats dip slightly from 55 to 53, according to the poll of more than 15,000 voters in 120 polling stations across Britain.

Britain's Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott said the final result was "just too difficult to call".

The prediction in yesterday's poll follows the trend of other national surveys which have consistently predicted a comfortable Labour margin.

But all three parties have warned that the battle for No 10 could be much more closely fought in key marginal constituencies.

Labour is haunted by the 1992 election when surveys showed them ahead only for the Tories under John Major to be returned to office.

Polls closed at 10pm last night after an intensive three-and-a-half week campaign with Mr Blair, Tory leader Michael Howard and Mr Kennedy criss-crossing the country clocking up thousands of campaign miles.

Mr Howard had targeted issues such as immigration and asylum that he hoped would bring voters back to the Tory fold. Defeat would inevitably bring calls for his resignation.

Mr Blair roped in Chancellor Gordon Brown early on in his bid to woo voters, having said he will step down before the next election, appearing to anoint Mr Brown as his successor.

And Labour insisted throughout that a protest vote for the Lib Dems because of concerns over issues such as Iraq would let the Conservatives into government.

But the Liberal Democrat leader dismissed the tactic as "claptrap" and repeatedly urged the voters to curb Mr Blair's House of Commons majority so that he could not "ride roughshod" over parliament and his own party.