War could cost US $2 trillion

IN the worst case, a war with Iraq could cost the United States almost as much as the government spent in the last budget year — nearly $2 trillion, according to new projections.

Researchers concluded in a study released on Thursday that war with Iraq could cost the US from $99bn to more than $1.9 trillion over a decade.

The lower figure assumes a successful military, diplomatic and nation-building campaign.

The higher figure assumes a prolonged war with a disruption of oil markets and a US recession, the authors say in a study by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Both figures assume a US involvement in the country for 10 years.

White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said it was premature to comment on cost estimates. “War is the last resort,” he said. “We’re hoping for a peaceful solution.”

Direct military spending could range from $50bn in a short campaign to $140bn in a prolonged war with Iraq, said the study titled, War With Iraq: Costs, Consequences and Alternatives.

The report cautioned that aside from the estimates of direct military costs, all the numbers should be regarded as informed conjecture.

Occupation and peacekeeping costs could be $75bn in the best case to $500bn in the worst, the study said. Reconstruction and nation-building costs are estimated at $30bn to $105bn, and humanitarian aid at $1bn to $10bn.

Economic ripples of war with Iraq are likely to spread beyond budgetary costs, with the prospect of raising the cost of imported oil, slowing productivity growth and possibly triggering a recession, the report said.

A prolonged disruption of world oil markets could cost the US economy up to $778bn, the researchers estimated. On the other hand, Iraq’s huge oil resources could satisfy US needs for imported oil at current levels for almost a century and otherwise benefit the economy by $40bn.

Meanwhile, the White House yesterday confirmed the Bush Administration is pressuring UN weapons’ inspectors to aggressively encourage Iraqi scientists to defect to the US.

UN officials working in Baghdad have been told to offer Saddam Hussein’s weapons’ experts asylum in America in exchange for providing evidence against the Iraqi leader.

The Security Council resolution unanimously approved last month demands that Iraq provide unrestricted access to all officials and other persons that Mr Blix’s inspections team wants to interview inside or outside Iraq.

The resolution also requires Iraq to provide by tomorrow a full inventory of its weapons and weapons’ programmes.

Saddam Hussein’s ambassador to the UN, Mohammed Al-Douri said the declaration would be handed over to inspectors at 8pm Baghdad time (5pm Irish time) today and copies would be couriered to UN headquarters in New York for tomorrow.