Secret US report predicts no reform in region

A classified report

Sat, 15 Mar, 2003 - 00:00

the US State Department concluded that overthrowing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is unlikely to generate democratic reform in the Arab world, the Los Angeles Times said yesterday.

The conclusion undermined one of President George W Bush’s justifications for his planned to invasion of Iraq, as expressed in a speech in February at the American Enterprise Institute.

“A liberated Iraq can show the power of freedom to transform that vital region by bringing hope and progress into the lives of millions,” Bush said in the speech at the time.

The Los Angeles Times quoted the report as saying: “Liberal democracy would be difficult to achieve ... Electoral democracy, were it to emerge, could well be subject to exploitation by anti-American elements.”

The newspaper also quoted an unnamed intelligence source as saying that the thrust of the document “is “this idea that you're going to transform the Middle East and fundamentally alter its trajectory is not credible.”

The paper continued: “Even the document’s title appears to dismiss the administration argument. The report is labelled 'Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes’.” State Department officials refused to comment on the report, or even confirm if it existed.

Advocates of the “democratic domino” theory have argued that democratic governments in the Middle East would be more favourable to the United States and its ally Israel. Undersecretary of Defence Douglas Feith, for example, said last month that democratic institutions in Iraq could help create Palestinian interlocutors for the Israelis. Secretary of State Colin Powell has also said that the invasion of Iraq could reshape the region to enhance US interests.

Opponents disagree, arguing said that on the contrary democratic governments would by definition reflect public opinion, which in most Arab countries is more hostile to the United States and Israel than the existing authoritarian governments.

The Los Angeles Times also quoted the report’s conclusion that political, economic and social problems are likely to undermine stability in the Middle East "regardless of the nature of any externally influenced or spontaneous, indigenous change".