Bush gambles political future and place in history

US PRESIDENT George W Bush has staked his political future — and his place in history — on the outcome of war with Iraq.

He is the first US leader to openly champion the controversial policy of a pre-emptive strike.

The son of the last president to lead the country against Saddam Hussein has been unwavering in his determination to finish the job, despite a lack of firm evidence that Saddam poses a direct threat to the US.

Mr Bush tirelessly pushed for military action in the face of widespread criticism abroad and complaints at home that it defied the US constitution provision that only a “clear and present danger” to national security justifies action.

His determination to act is fuelled in part by fervently held religious beliefs. A devout Methodist who studies scripture each morning and mentions God frequently in his speeches, Mr Bush appears certain there is a divine justification for removing the Iraqi regime. “My faith sustains me,” he said when asked if he had any doubts about taking military action.

But perhaps his most telling motivation for wanting to overthrow Saddam is a straightforward desire for revenge.

“This is the guy who tried to kill my dad,” he blurted out at a Houston fundraiser last September.

Aides say that in private the President is even more emphatic in denouncing Saddam for a foiled 1993 assassination attempt against his father in Kuwait.

While Mr Bush appears to have no doubts about the invasion, political commentators stress war is a dangerous game for presidents. The Korean conflict cost Harry S Truman his job in the early 1950s. A decade later Lyndon Johnson had his presidency undone by the carnage in Vietnam.

Even a successful war cannot guarantee political survival, something Mr Bush knows all too well. George Bush Senior enjoyed some of the highest presidential ratings in history after the swift victory in the first Gulf War. But just a year later, with the economy in tatters, he was booted out of office by a little-known state governor named Bill Clinton.

“Even some of the greatest foreign policy triumphs are no guarantee so in strictly political terms, he’s taking a great risk going to war in Iraq,” said Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University.

“His biggest danger is the economy. No incumbent president has ever been re-elected during an election year recession, and that’s one of the most potentially perilous effects of war.”