Key states give Kerry the edge in cliffhanger

SENATOR John Kerry has erased US President George W Bush’s modest lead and the two candidates head into election day tied at 49%-49%, a nationwide USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll shows, as an extraordinarily bitter and expensive campaign prepared to end.

Across the dozen battleground states expected to determine the winner, Mr Kerry holds a 5% edge including small leads among likely voters in the critical states of Ohio and Florida. He trails by a similar margin in the third big battleground, Pennsylvania.

But USA Today polls nationwide and in six competitive states show a contest that either candidate could win.

The battle between mammoth get-out-the-vote operations and the prospect of a flood of new voters are key to whether Mr Bush wins four more years or joins his father as a one-term president.

A week earlier, Mr Bush had led Mr Kerry on who would better handle the situation in Iraq by 11% that edge shrank to 4%. The 22-point advantage Mr Bush had held in handling terrorism was cut in half.

Last week, Mr Bush led Mr Kerry 51%-46%.

"It seems like a scary Hallowe'en for George Bush," Kerry pollster Mark Mellman says. "People in this country clearly want a fresh start."

Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said that the race is close but that Mr Bush is in a good position. He disputes Gallup's assumptions about the 3% of likely voters who said they were undecided.

Gallup's formula assumes that nine of 10 of those voters would support Mr Kerry, based on analyses of previous presidential races involving an incumbent.

Without allocating those voters, Mr Bush led Mr Kerry 49%-47% among likely voters. Among the larger group of registered voters, Mr Kerry led Mr Bush 48%-46%.

Overall, Mr Bush and Mr Kerry were deadlocked in four national polls of likely voters released late on Sunday and yesterday.

Mr Bush led Mr Kerry 49% to 47% in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll; by 48% to 47% in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll; and by 49% to 46% in a CBS News/New York Times survey.

"We are basically saying that it is too close to call," said Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport.

"Bush has a very slight, non-statistically significant, lead," which goes away when the undecided voters are factored in.

Senator John McCain, an Arizona Republican supporting Mr Bush, and Senator Joseph Biden, a Delaware Democrat backing Kerry, said the election will turn on each campaign's ability to motivate voters and the results from a few key states.

"Every election, we say it depends on voter turnout," Mr McCain said on CBS's Face the Nation programme. "It really does this time."

On the same programme, Mr Biden said the race will come down to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

"I think he wins Pennsylvania," Mr Biden said. "I think it comes down to whether John wins one of the other two states. If he does, I think he's president, because he'll win Pennsylvania."