Unionists should look South for buffer against SF

EFFORTS to broker agreement among political parties in the North, in my view, are stumbling inexorably towards collapse and, all things considered, this need not necessarily be the worst possible outcome.

Any agreement that is hammered out would only serve at present to paper over cracks. Most likely it would amount to a re-run of the previous occasion when the Assembly and Executive were functioning.

Constant injections of political support from one or other, or both, governments would be required to keep it all propped up. The main political forces on the nationalist side see in it merely a stepping stone towards some form of united Ireland — precisely what form is deliberately left vague for the time being.

But equally, unionists have reached a point where they just cannot bring themselves to do business with Sinn Féin and this clouds their entire political agenda. Paradoxically, this is also the reason why their political interests would now be served best within an all-Ireland framework.

At least within such a framework they could create a buffer between themselves and republicans. This option is no longer easily available within a six-county context.

Charles Haughey controversially described Northern Ireland as a “failed political entity”. He was probably only echoing the warning of a unionist leader of an earlier era, the Dubliner Edward Carson, who anticipated such an outcome when he turned down overtures to become prime minister when Northern Ireland was created.

Partition was as much a matter of historical compromise for unionism as it was for Irish nationalism.

Exactly where unionist thinking lies isn’t always easy to gauge, but it’s surely apparent to them that their most likely (and reliable) allies in marginalising the influence of Sinn Féin lie across the border and not across the sea.

This is the impression one gets from the ease with which unionist politicians engage and exchange banter with their Southern counterparts — the recent appearance of Ian Paisley Jnr on RTÉ’s Questions and Answers, for example.

Political leaders of the two main traditions will be able properly to engage in dialogue with their respective constituencies on issues like policing and power-sharing now that strand one of the Good Friday Agreement is being put on ice, the public spotlight is moving away from the North and they are relieved of the pressure to reach a settlement.

In the meantime an opportunity will be opened up to explore other areas of the Good Friday Agreement — what it calls the “totality of relationships among the peoples of these islands”.

It is possible that by developing initiatives in these areas, a momentum could be created to return to the question of government in the North at a later date.

However, it may also prove to be the case that the time for this has passed for reasons already outlined. The cross-border co-operation envisaged in strand two of the agreement may end up superseding those aspects outlined in strand one.

The absence of democratic institutions governing Northern Ireland will not of itself lead to a descent back into the violence and anarchy of the past, but neither can this be ruled out.

Certain measures could be taken now in anticipation of such a scenario. This could entail the Government seeking a binding commitment that any future peacekeeping intervention in the North would have an Irish input.

The Irish defence forces could assume responsibilities in areas and communities of the North where their presence would be welcomed over that of a British occupying power which would only serve to inflame the situation.

Oscar Ó Dúgáin

52 Ascaill Dhroichead Chairdhuibh

Fionnghlaise

Baile Átha Cliath 11