Arsenal v PSG: Where the Champions League final can be won and lost

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta and Bukayo Saka during a training session at the Puskas Arena, Budapest. Pic: Nick Potts/PA Wire.

Arsenal will compete in just their second ever Champions League final tonight. They face defending European champions Paris Saint-Germain in Budapest 20 years on from their 2-1 loss to Barcelona.

The Gunners, fresh from their Premier League title triumph, will have their work cut out to get the better of the Parisian powerhouse. To some, PSG are the best team in Europe. Others will tell you that Luis Enrique is one of the greatest managers of all time.

The Spaniard is one game away from matching Zinedine Zidane’s Real Madrid heroics and becoming just the second manager to successfully defend the Champions League since its 1992 inception.

The case for Arsenal

Saying that, PSG are vulnerable. They haven’t looked as sound defensively this season as they have years gone by. There are chinks in the armour that Arsenal can exploit, and the weaknesses ultimately come in the defence.

PSG made the decision to cash in on Gianluigi Donnarumma last summer, the Italian going on to sign for Manchester City. In his place, they brought in Lucas Chevalier from Lille. However, the young Frenchman struggled for both form and fitness. He is expected to return to the squad for Saturday’s showdown, but he won’t usurp Russian Matvey Safonov between the sticks.

Now, to go from Donnarumma to Safonov is a downgrade, that goes without saying. The towering Italy international may have the odd mistake in him, but he’s a sturdier pair of hands than his former PSG teammate. Indeed, the Russian looks vulnerable from crosses, which works in Arsenal’s favour.

In what is the worst kept secret in football, the Gunners are set-piece experts. They scored more set-piece goals, excluding penalties (23) than any other team in the Premier League this season. Of the 29 European goals, five have come from deadball situations.

And while PSG concede few - they only shipped 29 times in Ligue 1 this season, five of which (17.2%) were from set-pieces - Arsenal’s ability to ruffle feathers from corners or free kicks will work in their favour.

It’s not just in goal where the French side are relatively weak. At the heart of the defence, captain Marquinhos isn’t the player he once was. Granted, PSG’s domestic dominance means Enrique has been able to spare the Brazilian for the Champions League - he’s registered more European minutes (1216) than league (1049) this season - yet his physical decline can be ruthlessly exploited by this powerhouse Arsenal side.

Factor in the likely absence of star right-back Achraf Hakimi, the Moroccan struggling with a hamstring complaint, and there are issues in the PSG backline. Midfielder-by-trade Warren Zaire-Emery is expected to fill in in defence but it’s a makeshift back-four that isn’t up to its usual high standards.

And given the form of Leandro Trossard in the run-in, the Belgian will fancy his chances of making things difficult for the French side. No team has committed more errors leading to an opposition goal (6) or shot (26) than PSG in the Champions League this season. Press them high to force turnovers in dangerous positions, and it’ll present chances to Mikel Arteta’s men.

How the champs could profit

It could be the tale of two right-backs in Budapest on Saturday evening. Arsenal have their own concerns for the role. Jurrien Timber hasn’t played since the 2-0 win over Everton back in March, while deputy Ben White is ruled out of the clash at the Puskas Arena.

Cristhian Mosquera is hardly a poor stand-in should Timber fail to prove his fitness. The Spaniard has played at right-back previously, and one of the reasons he was signed from Valencia was for this versatility.

However, he would likely come up against one of football’s in-form widemen. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia was instrumental as PSG won the Champions League last season, and he’s turning backlines inside and out as the Ligue 1 champions look to defend their crown.

The Georgian has scored 10 goals and laid on an additional four assists in his 14 appearances since the start of March. Give him an inch, and he’ll take a mile. ‘Kvaradona’ is good to make do on his nickname and put in a trophy-winning performance.

Paris Saint-Germain's Ousmane Dembele during a training session at the Puskas Arena, Budapest. Pic: Mike Egerton/PA Wire.

Mosquera will naturally do his homework on PSG’s flying winger, but keeping the former Napoli man in check will prove easier said than done.

Another uncertainty comes in the middle of the park, around who joins Declan Rice and captain Martin Odegaard in the midfield. Martin Zubimendi was previously a nailed-on starter. The Spaniard, though, looks a spent force after a demanding debut campaign in England. The former Real Sociedad man has made costly errors, and has since dropped out of the side at the expense of Myles Lewis-Skelly.

The teenager, who had struggled for game time in the first half of the campaign, has brought the requisite energy to the role that had been found wanting. It’s all well and good impressing in midfield against Fulham, West Ham and Burnley. It’s another doing so against this powerhouse PSG machine.

The trio of Joao Neves, Vitinha and Fabian Ruiz is arguably the best in world football. Lewis-Skelly will need to be on top of his game in order to stamp his authority in a key area.

Either way, there are a series of on-field mini-battles that’ll determine who wins the war between Arsenal and PSG in Budapest on Saturday.