Hangover to title hopefuls: how Aston Villa built their Premier League charge

After a slow start to the season, Aston Villa's turnaround has been remarkable. They've won 14 of their last 16 games, including nine wins from 10 in the Premier League

Emi Buendía has been outstanding since returning to the Aston Villa first XI. Pic: Nick Potts/PA Wire.

Funny how quickly things can change. At the end of a difficult summer when financial realities bit hard, Unai Emery raised eyebrows by insisting that Aston Villa would not be contenders to finish in the top seven.

“We are starting more or less like when I arrived here,” he said the day before Villa sold Jacob Ramsey, a prized academy asset, to Newcastle United for £40m so they could satisfy profit and sustainability regulations and drew 0-0 with them at home. 

It soon got worse – they needed five games to score a goal, the final team in England’s top seven divisions to get off the mark, and after that 1-1 draw away to Sunderland, Emery laid into his players by describing their defensive effort as “lazy.” 

Every week, the mandate goes, one Premier League club must be in crisis. The aim is to never be that outfit, yet entering the final days of September, Villa were threatening to take on the mantle. 

Monchi, the highly-regarded transfer chief, was replaced by Roberto Olabe in an off-field shuffle that both underlined recognition from on high that change was required and that Emery’s position remained as secure as Premier League coaching gigs go.

Their first win, a scrappy 1-0 against Bologna, arrived the Thursday after the Sunderland shocker and did not immediately feel like such an emphatic turning point. But three days later they defeated Fulham to climb out of the bottom three, kickstarting a remarkable run.

The record in all competitions since is 14 wins from 16, and nine victories from 10 in the league ahead of tomorrow’s trip to West Ham. Which brings the inevitable question: are Villa now title contenders?

Three points behind Arsenal after Emi Buendía’s late, late goal to sink Mikel Arteta’s team last weekend, from a distance it very much looks the case entering a festive period where the fixture list is tricky. After the Hammers they host Manchester United, who remain a puzzle, before visiting Chelsea and Arsenal, no doubt determined for revenge.

Should they emerge unbeaten, expectations will skyrocket, though Emery will not publicly countenance such suggestions and within the dressing room the message will remain the same: work hard, get better every day and see where that takes them.

“We have a lot of things to improve,” he said this week. "How we were two months ago and how we are now is different. We are building an emotional structure inside to get everybody together.” 

Structure is everything to Emery and a key reason for their turnaround is a familiarity no other side can match. Only Fulham have an older first XI (27.4 years to 27.3) and the spine of the team is not that different to the one he inherited in November 2022.

Emi Martínez, the goalkeeper, and the back four are unchanged from his first match in charge with the exception of Tyrone Mings, who is presently injured. Buendía, captain John McGinn, Boubacar Kamara and Ollie Watkins featured in his debut, a 3-1 win against United, too.

All have improved as individuals under Emery’s demanding, detailed guidance but having such an intricate understanding of each other is a major advantage – with one caveat.

Such a settled core could also prove the undoing of any challenge while they also commit to the Europa League, which Emery has previously won four times. “We can’t stop,” he said after Thursday night’s 2-1 win away to Basel. “The Europa League is very important for us.” 

Except there is a relative lack of depth to the squad, heightening the risk of burnout and injuries, and some of the recent additions are yet to earn Emery’s trust. Jadon Sancho has not started a league game and he has hardly been devastating in Europe. Then again, at least he remains involved.

Harvey Elliott is not being considered for selection having arrived on loan from Liverpool at the end of the transfer window carrying high expectations. After winning the Premier League last season and earning the U21 Euros player of the tournament award in June, he was not even in the travelling party to Basel, with several academy players favoured to fill the bench instead.

Elliott was hooked at half-time of his only start, the Fulham win, and has had no action at all since two minutes off the bench against Feyenoord in early October. It is assumed that he has simply not grasped what Emery is looking for, while Villa’s obligation to buy him in the summer only becomes active after 10 appearances. He has made five, few expect a sixth.

That shows how demanding Emery is but the player who replaced Elliott in that solitary start, Buendía, has been outstanding since returning to the first XI.

He has starred against Fulham and Bournemouth before delivering the season’s best moment so far versus Arsenal, and his goals have alleviated the pressure on Ollie Watkins, the squad’s only centre-forward who was stuck on one goal before the start of December.

Watkins offers so much more than scoring, though, and his work ethic and link-up play has meant unwavering support – despite the need for more end product.

“That’s my job,” Watkins said after a brace against Brighton 10 days ago. “It's been a tricky period in my career.”

The expected goals metrics, which are worthy of attention despite the doubts of traditionalists, suggest Villa are outperforming the data in both boxes more than any other team. Often there will be a regression to the mean but according to fbref’s calculations they have scored six more than expected and conceded 6.4 fewer.

Not bad for a team that, in McGinn’s words, began the campaign “hungover” from just missing out on Champions League qualification on the final day of last season and feeling the “uncertainty” around financial regulations that brought a UEFA fine.

Should they seal a return to Europe’s top competition, it would go down as a major success.

Yet a decade on from Leicester City’s miracle their fans should be entitled to dream higher. More than aware of how quickly it can all change, they need to enjoy every moment of this ride.