Top-five tussle: how Premier League battle for Champions League spots is shaping up
Big spenders Chelsea may be distracted by the Conference League. File picture
The important thing for Forest is that they sit third and have an FA Cup semi-final against Manchester City to look forward to. Everyone below would like to be in their position. Injuries will be a cause for concern for Nuno EspĂrito Santo, who has been without his top scorer, Chris Wood, since the international break and then lost Wood’s replacement, Taiwo Awoniyi, leaving Forest without a recognised striker for the loss to Aston Villa, a game also missed by Ola Aina. Their final seven matches include four at home, where they have lost only twice, but three tricky away clashes in London mean the path to a historic return to Europe’s top table is unlikely to be straightforward for a team who have not been in this situation before. Forest have more experienced squads snapping at their heels as they seek to accomplish the most significant Premier League achievement since Leicester won the title.
Injury-hit underdogs enter uncharted waters.
Everton (h), Tottenham (a), Brentford (h), Crystal Palace (a), Leicester (h), West Ham (a), Chelsea (h).
Enzo Maresca’s young side have underwhelmed since Christmas but are still well placed to provide substantial proof the plan is working. They are clinging stubbornly on to fourth place and justifiably believe the return of injured players in attack will give them crucial momentum. Yet the heat is on. Their Conference League involvement is a slight distraction, supporters are grumbling about Maresca’s style of play and trips to Fulham, Newcastle and Forest look tricky for a team without an away league win since December. One slip at home could be disastrous, especially as Chelsea’s latest accounts suggest their finances would benefit from qualification for the Champions League for the first time since Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital bought the club in 2022. The prize money on offer at the Club World Cup will help but Chelsea need to be rubbing shoulders with Europe’s elite on a regular basis.
Big spenders must show character.
Ipswich (h), Fulham (a), Everton (h), Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), Manchester United (h), Nottingham Forest (a).
If winning the Carabao Cup did wonders for Newcastle’s self-esteem, Champions League qualification would not merely enable Eddie Howe to sign a better class of player this summer but quite possibly keep Alexander Isak, Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimarães and Anthony Gordon happy on Tyneside. With so much at stake the good news is that Newcastle have a game in hand on key rivals, five home fixtures and Isak leading their attacking line. Throw in a formidable midfield featuring Guimarães, Tonali and Joelinton, allied to Howe’s increasing stylistic flexibility and tactical invention, and it is easy to make a compelling case for a fifth- or even fourth-placed finish. And yet … even Howe concedes his team are infuriatingly inconsistent, Isak is carrying a minor groin injury and the squad lacks depth. Much hinges on “six-pointers” at Aston Villa and Brighton and, perhaps most significantly, at home to Chelsea.
It is in their hands.
Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (h), Aston Villa (a), Ipswich (h), Brighton (a), Chelsea (h), Arsenal (a), Everton (h).
These are strange times as Pep Guardiola dices with failure to claim Champions League qualification for the first time in a trophy-laden 16-season career. City are down in sixth and, of their final seven matches, only Southampton and Wolves appear simple. To be out of the competition next term would be a black eye to City’s status and Guardiola’s esteem, particularly as he adores it. But more serious would be the loss of the riches derived from the Champions League if City are found guilty of one or more of the 130-plus charges brought by the Premier League — the club deny wrongdoing — and a sizeable financial penalty is the punishment. It is a blow to City that Erling Haaland is out until the final weekend (at the earliest), when City are at Fulham. Guardiola believes the dogfight for a place will go to then, and this correspondent agrees.Â
Tricky run-in especially without Haaland.
Crystal Palace (h), Everton (a), Aston Villa (h), Wolves (h), Southampton (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a).
If Unai Emery is to lead Villa into Europe’s elite competition for a second successive season, he will have to do it the hard way. Winning the Champions League in Munich in May is an extreme long shot, so they must navigate a tricky run of domestic fixtures. Paris Saint-Germain’s visit to Villa Park in the quarter-final second leg on Tuesday represents the first of four blockbuster matches in 11 days, ending with an FA Cup semi-final against Crystal Palace. After that they face Fulham and Bournemouth, two sides hopeful of hosting European football next season. It is thought Villa do not need to make the Champions League to meet profitability and sustainability rules but it would undeniably help. Perhaps more significantly, it would enable them to attract more high-pedigree players and keep those they have. Villa are the only top-flight team fighting on three fronts, so their squad, burnished in January, will be tested. It is a big ask, but Emery loves a challenge.
If anyone can, Emery can.
Southampton (a), Newcastle (h), Manchester City (a), Fulham (h), Bournemouth (a), Spurs (h), Manchester United (a).
The club have not received as much attention as others looking to break the glass ceiling but should not be underestimated. Marco Silva’s side have taken points off Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool and Newcastle and are capable of beating anyone. They are strong at home, dangerous on their travels and are set up superbly by one of the league’s most underrated managers. Still, though, Fulham look an outside bet. They have a habit of dropping points whenever there is a chance to push on — home draws with Ipswich and Southampton were not particularly clever — and will probably blow hot and cold too much. A strategy built around rejuvenating players who have struggled elsewhere in the Premier League has allowed Fulham to build a solid, experienced squad but it can make them inconsistent. Qualification for the Europa League looks a more realistic target – and would still be a laudable achievement. Â
Surprise package targeting more upsets.
Bournemouth (a), Chelsea (h), Southampton (a), Aston Villa (a), Everton (h), Brentford (a), Manchester City (h).
Until an FA Cup defeat by Nottingham Forest, Brighton seemed to be real contenders for the top five after making their European debuts in the Europa League last season. But unlike earlier in the season when they responded to a 7-0 hammering at Forest by winning their next six in all competitions, the penalty shootout defeat against Nuno EspĂrito Santo’s side has blown them off course. Damaging losses against Aston Villa and a Crystal Palace side reduced to nine players have left Fabian HĂĽrzeler’s team with a sizeable task if they are to surpass the sixth place they managed under Roberto De Zerbi in 2023 — the club’s highest finish. Nine points from their next three fixtures against Leicester, Brentford and West Ham would certainly help to change the mood, although HĂĽrzeler must find a solution to the lack of creativity up front and a defence that has been leaking plenty of goals.
HĂĽrzeler searching for right formula.
Leicester (h), Brentford (a), West Ham (h), Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Liverpool (h), Spurs (a).
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