The Premier League title run-in: Nine steps to heaven - or one slip from despair

It's a three-horse race as the season enters the final furlong. 

EMBRACEABLE YOU: Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola and Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta speak. Pic: Martin Rickett/PA Wire.

With just three points separating the top three in the Premier League and only nine games to go, fans of Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City will be scouring the fixture list to see where their team can gain an advantage – and where others may stutter.

There have been many campaigns with iconic run-in moments that are later perceived to have been turning points in the title race.

Think Steven Gerrard’s slip against Chelsea in 2014 that allowed Demba Ba to lead the Blues to a 2-0 victory at Anfield, handing City the title in the process. Or Vincent Kompany’s outrageous long-distance goal against Leicester in 2019 that put his side on the way to title glory just when it seemed they were about to drop points.

But where will the big moments arrive in 2024? Here we assess who has fate in their favour, and who faces the biggest hurdles on the final lap to glory… 

Liverpool 

In their favour: Two big factors are in play, here. Firstly, the fact that Liverpool are already top of the league with a two-point cushion and, of course, the Jurgen Klopp effect. The sheer emotion around his farewell season means the atmosphere at Anfield in the final four home games will be tumultuous. Good luck coping with that on the final day, Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Banana skins ahead: The game that Arsenal and City fans will be watching most closely is the Merseyside derby at Goodison. Liverpool’s record there is outstanding but this is a match which could have a title and relegation on the line in the same 90 minutes. We’ve seen before how hard Everton will fight to stay up and this is the match that has the biggest potential for a huge story – and an iconic title slip-up.

Other games to consider include a trip to free-scoring Fulham just three days after going to Atalanta in the Europa League and a tough trip to Villa Park on the penultimate weekend. We ought to add in next weekend’s trip to Old Trafford, despite Manchester United’s poor season. It’s a fixture in which anything can happen– as Liverpool have already experienced in the FA Cup this season.

The final day: Wolves at home is no gimme – Gary O’Neill’s side are one of the most improved sides in the league and capable, on their day, of winning anywhere. But the sheer power of emotion should drive Liverpool to victory if the title is up for grabs in Klopp’s big farewell.

Fixtures:

April 4: Sheff United (h) 

April 7: Man United (a) 

April 14: Crystal Palace (h)

April 21: Fulham (a) 

April 24: Everton (a) 

April 27: West Ham (a) 

May 4: Tottenham (h) 

May 11: Aston Villa (a) 

May 19: Wolves (h)

Arsenal 

In their favour: Momentum is with Arsenal given they scored 26 Premier League goals across February and March; and their goalless draw at the Etihad last weekend showed they now have grit as well as flair. They also have five home games remaining, compared to Liverpool’s four, and have lost just once on their own patch in the league this season. There is a growing feeling in North London that Mike Arteta’s side are the verge of something special, and they have learned from last year’s title implosion.

Banana skins ahead: Arsenal’s run-in includes some testing fixtures and, in many ways, it throws up more opportunities for a slip-up than any of their rivals.

Going to Brighton next weekend is the first, because when Roberto De Zerbi’s side play well they are capable of beating anyone. There’s also a very tricky trip to Wolves just days after what could be an exhausting Champions League quarter-final tie against Bayern in Munich, plus a visit to Old Trafford on the penultimate weekend. That is United’s final home game of the season, which always generates extra meaning – especially if, like Erik ten Hag, your job is on the line.

But the one fixture you’d pick out for the ultimate banana skin is the North London derby at Tottenham on April 28. Spurs have their own European ambitions on the line and will celebrate as if they have won the league if they prevent Arsenal getting their hands on the Premier League trophy for the first time in 21 years.

Final day: Everton at home looks like a one-sided affair and the fixture brings back memories of Arsenal’s first ever Premier League title in 1998. Remember that iconic Tony Adams goal against Everton at an ecstatic Highbury? But if there is anything still on the line for the Toffees, who are battling relegation, that could add an extra dynamic.

Fixtures 

April 3: Luton (h) 

April 6: Brighton (a) 

April 14: Aston Villa (h) 

April 20: Wolves (a) 

April 23: Chelsea (h) 

April 28: Tottenham (a) 

May 4: Bournemouth (h) 

May 11: Man United (a) 

May 19: Everton (h)

Manchester City 

In their favour: City’s title experience is an obvious advantage, and the reason why so many pundits still have them as favourites despite Sunday’s disappointing performance against Arsenal. They have won five of the last six titles, with only Liverpool interrupting that dominance, in 2020. Their run-in looks comfortable, too, and there isn’t a single fixture on the list you’d bet on them to lose – with five of their opponents currently in the bottom half of the table.

Banana skins ahead: It’s not easy to spot an obvious fixture where Pep’s men could slip up – and fortune appears to be in their favour. City are still chasing hard in the Champions League, with a quarter-final against Real Madrid on the horizon – but they are fortunate that they are at home, to Luton, after playing in the Bernabeu.

Wednesday’s match at home to Aston Villa is a potential hazard, but an injury to Ollie Watkins eases the nerves.

As for away games, Brighton is always a test but if you’re looking for a real upset then Forest at a raucous City Ground on 28 April stands out. Forest, fighting relegation, are unpredictable but have goals in them – and are fired up by their recent points deduction. With Premier League survival on the line, it’s a fixture that has danger written all over it.

Final day: West Ham at home looks comfortable if the title is on the line at the Etihad in May. David Moyes’ team have threats and European ambitions. But it’s hard to see City’s big-name players failing to turn up for this one.

Fixtures:

April 3: Aston Villa (h) 

April 6: Crystal Palace (a) 

April 13: Luton (h) 

April 20: Chelsea (h) 

April 25: Brighton (a) 

April 28: Nottm Forest (a) 

May 4: Wolves (h) 

May 11: Fulham (a) 

May 19: West Ham (h) 

Verdict: The heart says an outpouring of emotion at Anfield or fan fervour at the Emirates can deliver a thrilling finale to the title race that is remembered forever. The head says Manchester City, having done it so many times before, have fewer banana skins to navigate in an easier run-in – and the experience to make it four in a row.