Forward momentum: who needs what in the January sales

It's a January transfer window dominated by clubs desperate for a striker, writes Chris Hatherall

Ivan Toney  Picture: Alex Davidson/Getty Images

There is only one type of player who sits on top of the New Year’s wish list: a striker who guarantees goals at the top level. So, that’s why Brentford’s Ivan Toney is set to be the biggest story of 2024.

Toney, despite having missed the last nine months after being suspended by The FA for breaking betting rules, is a man in demand after scoring 20 goals in the Premier League last season.

But not all strikers who cost a lot prove value for money – and that will be weighing on the minds of suitors being asked to pay as much as €115m for his services.

Atletico Madrid paid €127.2m for Joao Felix, for instance, and he’s never quite hit the heights. Barcelona paid €120m for Antoine Griezmann, and eventually sent him back to Atleti for just €20m. And Chelsea paid €113m for Romelu Lukaku, left him out in the cold – and then eventually sent him out on loan to Inter and Roma.

So, you can see that finding a striker in January isn’t as simple as it sounds. Not everyone gets a sure-fire hit such as Harry Kane (who cost Bayern €100m last summer) or Kylian Mbappe (the most expensive forward of all time following a €180m Euros move to PSG in 2018).

Interestingly, it is the big boys who need firepower this year at a time when tactical trends are moving away from the days of a false nine and back to a pivotal forward who has pace, power and an ability to hold up the ball. Everybody wants their own Erling Haaland.

That’s why Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs all covet Toney (and Manchester United are keeping a close eye on him, too). But with the Bees preferring to wait until the summer to do a deal, it’s a story that could run and run.

Arsenal are favourites and believe an extra striker could strengthen their title push, but there are doubts over whether they have the funds.

Chelsea are struggling to score goals and have already spent over a billion euros so you can’t rule them out – but their current transfer strategy is to buy young talent on long contracts. Toney will be 28 in March.

If the Bees hold out, then finding an alternative won’t be easy.

Chelsea have been heavily linked with Victor Osimhen, but a new contract at Napoli means his release clause has risen to at least €120m. Former Brighton and Coventry forward Viktor Gyokeres at Sporting, 25, is next on the list.

Arsenal have been watching Bournemouth’s former Liverpool forward Dominic Solanke, who has 14 goals already this season and could be available for €60m. Dusan Vlahovic, at Juventus, is another consideration – and at 23 he looks a better long-term prospect.

Tottenham have been persistently linked with Toney and haven’t yet replaced Kane. But Richarlison has hit form and Daniel Levy isn’t renowned for spending big for the sake of it. Chelsea target Gyokeres is a cheaper alternative, and Levy loves a transfer battle with a London rival.

United are in the most desperate need of a striker, especially as they won’t be renewing Anthony Martial’s contract. But with Rasmus Hojlund having finally scored his first Premier League goal, and Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s money coming on board in February, will they wait until the summer?

The most persistent rumour is Stuttgart striker Serhou Guirassy, 27, who has a release clause of just €20m – and has scored 18 goals this season. At that price, he could be a bargain, with June earmarked as United’s time to spend.

At the bottom of the table, Sheffield United desperately need goals – and hope to bring back Iliman Ndiaye, who has failed to shine at Marseille.

Crying out for a keeper

Newcastle and Chelsea Newcastle top this list following a long-term injury to Nick Pope. Martin Dubravka has stepped in, but the team’s recent form has been poor and they need a boost.

David De Gea, a free agent since leaving Man United, is the obvious choice, although there have also been rumours that Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsdale, edged out by David Raya at the Emirates, is an option (with Chelsea also interested). It would be a major surprise if Arsenal opted to sell, however.

Chelsea currently have former Brighton man Robert Sanchez between the sticks, but he was never intended to be first choice for the long term. They will be searching the market for an updgrade.

Those who need a proper clear-out

Man United, Forest, Chelsea If the rumours at Old Trafford are true, then United could be waving goodbye to half their squad between now and next summer.

Reports suggest they are willing to sell Anthony Martial, Casemiro, Christian Eriksen, Harry Maguire and Antony over two windows; and you can see why. There have been a lot of managers at Old Trafford, but the players are the only common denominator in years of under achievement. Forest could also be big sellers under new manager Nuno Espirito Santos. He has no wriggle room in the transfer window unless he sells first.

The same goes for Chelsea, amid speculation they are even willing to sell captain Conor Gallagher; a move that would be incredibly unpopular with fans at Stamford Bridge. Tottenham are watching closely with a fee of around €60m mooted. Trevaoh Chalobah, Ian Masten, Noni Madueke, Marc Cucurella and Armando Borja are also on offer.

Those who can't afford to lose their biggest assets

Brentford, West Ham, Brighton:  The Bees have endured a nightmare season with injuries to major assets such as Rico Henry, Bryan Mbeumo, Kristoffer Ajer, Aaron Hickey, Kevin Schade and Josh Dasilva. They simply cannot sell the likes of Ivan Toney, Christian Norgaard or Hickey and still meet performance goals.

Brighton are in the same position. They have sold big in recent seasons but have been hit badly by injuries this time. There are big clubs who want Evan Ferguson and Kaoru Mitoma – but the Seagulls are unlikely to be tempted.

West Ham, who won a European trophy last season, have been hit and miss this year, leading some fans to doubt manager David Moyes. But this isn’t the time to sell talent such as Lucas Paqueta (a continued target for Man City) or Jarrod Bowen (linked with Liverpool). Said Benhrahma could be an exception – he’s wanted by Lyon.

Those who need back-up for injuries

Newcastle, Brighton, Liverpool -  The injury list at Newcastle is frightening, and there’s no doubt they urgently need back-ups.

In terms of big-ticket signings, Kalvin Philips from Man City is top of the list – but Scott McTominay (United) Ruben Neves (Al-Hilal), Emile Smith-Rowe (Arsenal) and Hugo Ekitite (PSG) are considerations, too.

At Brighton, manager Roberto De Zerbi has made it clear he cannot set his target for the season until after the window. Full-backs and midfielders are the most urgent need. But defender Jean-Clair Todibo at Nice is also linked.

Liverpool expected a quiet window, but injuries have changed all that, including most recently to Joel Matip. Back-up is needed in defensive areas, with Antonee Robinson at Fulham, Nino at Fluminense and Goncalo Alves at Sporting linked.

The opportunists

Aston Villa Villa have enjoyed an outstanding start to the season but have begun to look tired. So, don’t rule out one or two big-name signings to boost their top four hopes. Striker Kelechi Iheanacho from Leicester and playmaker Pedro Goncalves from Sporting are both linked – but there could be surprises.

The quiet and calculated one

Manchester City.  The champions are not ones to make last-minute emotional decisions. Instead, they are going under the radar with a €20m deal for River Plate’s teenage midfielder Claudio Echeverri. Even an injury to Erling Haaland hasn’t changed the policy. They are, however, willing to sell midfielder Kalvin Phillips.

Those keeping a nervous eye on FFP

Everton, Arsenal and Chelsea. Not everyone can spend big without thinking about FFP. Everton, who have already been docked 10 points for going over budget, will certainly feel restricted. But Arsenal, who had to loan goalkeeper David Raya from Brentford in August with a view to a €20m Euro deal, to stay within the rules, have their own issues.

Chelsea must fit into that bracket too having already spent a billion Euros under new owners. Expect clubs to sell before they buy – which will set the transfer wheel spinning even faster. Last year, clubs spent a record 939m Euros in January; and although that figure may not be repeated, the chequebooks are open at the ready.