Why Ireland’s chances of reaching Euro playoffs are almost zero - 0.12%

SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE: Ireland have a 0.12% chance of reaching the Euro 2024 playoffs. Photo by Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile

Ireland does love a major tournament but the famine will stretch toward a decade once next month rolls around and the line-up is confirmed for the Euro playoffs next March.

In a difficult group against France and Netherlands, that was always likely to be Ireland’s fallback from a failure to finish in the top two but two other developments have deepened the gloom.

Firstly, regardless of whether Ireland had a more favourable draw like, for example, Group G with Hungary and Serbia as leading seeds, the pair of defeats to Greece would have been fatal.

Gus Poyet’s team were, lest we forget, fourth seeds but that is where Ireland were guaranteed to finish with two games to spare.

The other scenario that’s unfolded is the backdoor ticket Ireland seemingly had from their Nations League campaign has all but been wrenched from their grasp.

Robbie Brady’s late penalty to rescue a 3-2 win over Armenia in 13 months placed Ireland 26th in UEFA’s standings.

Without delving too deep into the weeds, those rankings are frozen until the regular Euro qualifiers are completed, allowing 12 teams that don’t achieve top-two finishes entry into the playoffs next March. There are berths available from each of the three mini-groups consisting of semis and finals.

Some strange results and upsets in the other groups has seen Ireland been leapfrogged by teams they led when the Nations League concluded last year.

Irish fans realising the complexion of the qualifying group was eluding Ireland have been tracking these groups, with the Twitter account @We_Global informative by rating the percentage prospects for each nation.

Throughout this year, Ireland have slipped from 25% to 12%, then 2% last week.

The latest simulation, in the aftermath of this week’s outcomes around Europe, gives Ireland 0.12% stab at snaffling a playoff.

In reality, just one group is left to have any bearing on that remote reprieve. Amongst the several essentials is that Iceland travel to Lisbon next month and shatter Portugal’s peerless record by claiming victory.

Here we look at the relevant groups and why logic decrees any fanciful notions must be discounted.

Group B

This is Ireland’s group and talk earlier in the week about the team benefiting by losing their final games to Netherlands on November 18 was torpedoed on Monday night.

Again, in the quirky landscape of that retrospective Nations League table, Greece usurping the Dutch for the second ticket alongside pool victors France damages Ireland but that’s not going to happen.

Virgil Van Dijk’s late penalty in Athens completed the Dutch double over Greece. As head-to-head is decisive over goal difference in UEFA’s criteria, Ronald Koeman’s side require one win from their last two matches, either against Ireland in Amsterdam or Gibraltar three days later.

That’s also presuming Greece, who have a playoff guaranteed, overcome France on the same night. Forget that one.

Group E

Albania have been the surprise package of this campaign, coming within touching distance of advancing to Germany next year. They require one point from next month’s double-header against Moldova and Faroe Islands to be sure.

Even in the unlikely event that they falter, Moldova would profit, thereby assuming the position of one of the two teams behind Ireland in the Nations League standings they can’t afford to bypass them.

Group I

This could in time transpire to be one of the two scenarios Ireland had to rely on but the suspension of Israel’s fixtures due to the escalation in military activity places their status into abeyance.

Should they resume fixtures, probably in a neutral county, there’s a possibility they overcome the five-point gap to Romania in the final four matches.

Were it to unfold, it still leaves Ireland one short of the necessary two twists.

Group J

This is the pivotal one but a win for Slovakia and defeat for Bosnia and Herzegovina on Monday virtually renders it irrelevant from Ireland’s perspective.

Slovakia are another of the teams Ireland didn’t want qualifying directly but they are six points ahead of Iceland with two games to play. A draw in either of their fixtures against Iceland or Bosnia-Herzegovina will tumble them over the line but that’s only if Iceland ruin Cristiano Ronaldo’s lap of honour on the final day in the Portuguese capital.

All in all, this could be done and dusted on November 16 once Slovakia avoids defeat against Iceland.

Then, it’s official; Ireland won’t be returning to the scene of their first major tournament 36 years on. Not that we needed confirmation.