Vera Pauw's World Cup optimism tempered by seedings woe

Katie McCabe of Republic of Ireland following the UEFA Women's EURO 2022 qualifier. Picture: Eóin Noonan/Sportsfile

Perhaps the feelgood factor of an honourable defeat to Germany on Tuesday convinced Vera Pauw to be so upbeat about Ireland’s World Cup qualification prospects, for the reality is somewhat different.

Last month’s 1-0 loss in Ukraine, rather than the latest 3-1 reverse to the Germans, proved to be Ireland's downfall in their quest to bank a play-off for the European Championships.

Sixteen nations will participate in the delayed 2022 showpiece hosted by England. In contrast, just eight from Europe are currently guaranteed to reach the 2023 World Cup.

Granted, Fifa’s expansion of the tournament to 32 teams will benefit those in the Uefa region but given two of the extra eight places are already allocated to joint-hosts Australia and New Zealand, Europe can expect to gain one, maximum two, additional berths at the greatest show on earth.

Number crunching

For Ireland, who were positioned 20 of Europe’s nations in August's Fifa rankings, to nudge into the 10 qualifiers, they will either have to top their group or emerge through a tricky play-off series following a runners-up finish.

Add into the equation that three successive defeats, two against Germany and the Kiev killer, will damage their seeding, especially as the two nations lurking behind them in the standings, Portugal and Wales, have gained ranking points during the same stretch.

Denise O'Sullivan dejected after the defeat to Germany. Picture: INPHO/Laszlo Geczo

Overall, it means, similar to Stephen Kenny’s men’s team, Pauw’s side are tiptoeing along a seedings tightrope for next year’s World Cup draw.

However, unlike their male counterparts, instead of trying to cling onto the second tranche, the women will do well to remain among the third pot of nations.

That will be determined by decisions of Fifa and Uefa around the cutoff dates.

Given Covid-19 has postponed the Euros by 12 months, the governing bodies may also put back the World Cup draw to factor in results from the Euro play-offs in April.

Pauw, presuming she agrees a contract extension with the FAI, could have friendlies in February or March, which also carry ranking points.

Ireland’s plight is a consequence of essentially stagnating, on paper at least.

Their tally of 13 points from eight points was identical to the previous campaign under Colin Bell, the tilt at reaching last year’s World Cup.

Still, the main difference was the quality of the second seed they needed to dislodge.

Netherlands had just won the European Championships before landing in Ireland's group, whereas Ukraine, as the third-lowest of the nine options, was a plum draw for Ireland this time around.

1 December 2020; Republic of Ireland jerseys hang in their changing room prior to the UEFA Women's EURO 2022 Qualifier match between Republic of Ireland and Germany at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin. Photo by Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile

Once the emotion subsides, this will be considered Ireland’s best-ever chance of qualifying for their first tournament.

Captain Katie McCabe, who missed a penalty in Kiev, noted the main area to be rectified.

“It’s now about limiting mistakes,” said the Arsenal playmaker.

“The way we conceded the goal in Ukraine, then missing the penalty and Rianna Jarrett having a few chances to score, we just didn’t get any luck. We’ll have to be a bit tighter going forward.” 

Retaining their status as third seeds is also a prerequisite to avoiding another uphill struggle.