The week in Fantasy Premier League: Kane V Salah and the dangers of 'set-and-forget'
Winning in Fantasy Premier League all about bringing in players who are performing well and getting rid of the ones who aren't - it's as simple as that. Except when it isn't.
Take a look at the game's most expensive player,, who has looked a shadow of his former self in recent matches. No doubt we’ll learn the reasons behind his lack of composure and uncharacteristically frustrated body language in a future autobiography, but right now he’s become an expensive liability in FPL.
Salah is now the 5th most owned FPL player, falling behind team mate Sadio Mané in the ownership rankings ⤵️
— FPL Champion 🏆 (@FPLchampion) October 3, 2018
Salah has failed to return a goal or assist in 3 of his last 4 PL games, scoring only 14 points over the past 4 weeks 👀 #FPL pic.twitter.com/aGIlW1D1qT
By contrast, after a sluggish post-World Cup start to the season, is now looking sharper with every match - culminating in that trademark goal against Barcelona in midweek.
Kane pulls one back for Spurs!
— Virgin Media Sport (@VMSportIE) October 3, 2018
Tottenham 1-2 Barcelona.
Live on Virgin Media Sport Extra 1!#VMSport #UCL pic.twitter.com/JDsaGkpceG
After firing a brace past Huddersfield last week, the prospect of Kane facing an equally brittle Cardiff defence at Wembley has obvious appeal. Selling the out-of-form Salah would fund such move with cash to spare - but it’s a road littered with obstacles and pitfalls.
Firstly, there's the logistical problem. If Salah was classified as a forward in FPL, swapping him out for Kane would be relatively straightforward, but as it is, you're looking at a minimum of two transfers to make it happen.
Secondly, there are fixtures - if a home tie against Cardiff is reason enough to spend a transfer on Kane, is it not worth keeping Salah for the same tie?
play the Premier League's gruesome twosome - Huddersfield and Cardiff - in GW9 & 10. Anyone without the Egyptian for those weeks will surely want him back and will probably end up rearranging their squad again to do it.
By contrast, 's fixtures turn decidedly awkward from GW9 onwards, on paper at least, although Kane is one of the few players in the game capable of earning that prized "fixture-proof" accolade.
The final factor is form, and although the Tottenham man clearly has the edge here, as we know, nothing in FPL guaranteed.
Injury will deprive him of the support of key teammates like , and against Cardiff. He has also been playing a deeper role earlier this season, and although it has improved his chance creation, his propensity to shoot has suffered.
Sergio Aguero V Harry Kane https://t.co/HLyxhEWmMh pic.twitter.com/Bzv0dzoJLk
— Fantasy Football Fix (@FantasyFootyFix) October 2, 2018
However, whether it's by design or necessity given Spurs' current lack of midfielders, Pochettino’s decision to have Kane revert to a more familiar lone-striker role in recent matches seems to have paid dividends.
As for , the international break is well timed for him to resolve any personal or fitness issues, and should he fire against the bottom teams, as expected, his confidence could be quickly restored.
Of course, there’s nothing technically stopping you from owning both, but for most managers, it would mean sacrificing one of or to maintain anything resembling a balanced team structure.
Hazard is simply undroppable at present, and for all the doubts around Salah's form and Aguero's minutes, they both still represent the go-to attacking options in the two standout teams in the league.
Let's go over some early #EPL numbers, starting with Expected Goals per match.
— 11tegen11 (@11tegen11) October 1, 2018
Already, we see City are in a league of their own.
Liverpool are a firm second, and then we see... Wolves.
Arsenal and Manchester United are in obscure mediocrity here. pic.twitter.com/k6uMyrntUM
There's also a reluctance to play a second premium striker at a time when many mid-range forwards are outperforming their price brackets.
One way around this that some managers are considering is a - swapping Kane in for that lucrative Cardiff fixture, before swiftly bringing Aguero (who has never scored a goal in a competitive match at Anfield) back in again.
In general, this is a strategy best avoided. Using two precious transfers just to end up having the same squad you started with rarely makes sense - team value often takes a hit and it deprives you of the opportunity to make hit-free adjustments elsewhere.
That's not to say it can't work on occasion. You'll be relying on Kane to outperform both Aguero and the player you were going to captain, as well as the less tangible opportunity cost of what any alternative transfer could have earned you.
No so it comes down to
— Adam Hopcroft (@Hoptastats) October 3, 2018
Kane x2 + Hazard
Vs
Hazard x2 + Aguero
Even though I can do for free it still means I need to use 2 transfers just on this move as I'll reverse the following week
In summary, those holding Salah are faced with massive potential from a player looking increasingly unlikely to deliver on it. With Kane, it's pretty much the opposite.
Form or fixtures? It's your call - but whatever you do, make sure it happens before the at 7pm (GMT) on Friday.
Taking another look at Alonso
Be it positive or negative, once we develop a certain perception of a player, it can often be hard to shake off.
There will always be times when we need to follow the herd and make the obvious transfer - but when an FPL manager can spot shifting sands and react to it before everyone else, that's what legends are made of.
To do this, we must be constantly re-evaluating our players and avoiding a blind "set-and-forget" mentality.
Take for example. After scoring an incredible 44 points in the first four Gameweeks, he quickly became regarded as a must-have, all-out attacking defender.
He is now without an attacking return in his last three matches, and while excuses can be made that a more conservative role was necessary against Liverpool, the same can hardly be said of clashes against Cardiff and West Ham.
The falloff in some of his underlying stats is pretty alarming.
He's not worse off in every department. His average baseline BPS has improved, marginally, and he's creating 1.3 chances per game compared to just one previously (although none of these were rated as ‘Big Chances’ or resulted in assist).
Most of us will have bigger fish to fry, but for managers with a settled team and a burning ambition, taking profit on the Chelsea full-back could pay dividends.
QUICK TIP
With all this focus on attackers, it’s worth noting that it’s goalkeepers and defenders are providing by far the best value for money in FPL so far.
Have a quick look on the FPL site - select "Value (Season)" in the “Sort By” drop-down menu. You’ll see that only two midfielders and two attackers managed to make the first page.
BUY
Another 12-point haul alerted all and sundry to the appeal of last week.
Managers who snapped him up for £4.4m will be feeling pretty pleased with themselves, but those who missed out shouldn’t allow stubbornness to stop them from following suit.
Looks like last chance to get Doherty at asking for 4.5m! Likely price rise tonight. Doherty has clocked up a impressive return of points, perfect for managers looking to save or take funds out their defence to spend elsewhere! #FPL #fplcommunity pic.twitter.com/om6iQcRmOX
— FPL RemoteBot (@FRemotebot) October 3, 2018
The Irish international is always up and around the opposition box, registering 202 touches so far in the final third. and are top among defenders with 203 - but then Doherty has played 21 fewer minutes.
Yet despite this licence to get forward, manager ’s recent proclamation that "...most important is the clean sheet. You can always win a match when you’re defensively organised, that is the starting point" should mean that owners won't have to rely solely on attacking output.
On the defensive side, we can see where Fulham and Brighton get hurt, everywhere.
— 11tegen11 (@11tegen11) October 1, 2018
City are just plain good, both defending in open play and in set pieces.
Spurs defended well from set pieces, but less so from open play.
And the running theme of all numbers, Wolves are good. pic.twitter.com/yI3SAotniu
Gameweek 8 could be a fruitful time for Wolves defenders, too - opponents Crystal Palace have yet to score a goal in front of their home supporters this season.
Unfortunately, buying Doherty might mean eventually parting company with budget-friendly - having double Wolves defence for clashes against Spurs and Arsenal in GWs 11 and 12 is probably less than ideal.
TRY
is one for the watchlist. The Bosnian international was a firm favourite of FPL managers for a time last season before fading from view, but new Arsenal manager Unai Emery had him in an advanced role in the Europa League last night.
Should the arrival of into the first team finally bring them some defensive solidity, £4.9m isn't a bad price to pay for a wantonly attacking full-back at Arsenal.
GOODBYE
It was all too good to be true, insofar as having a Cardiff player can be described as such.
As predicted, did indeed turn out to be that classic FPL trap when the out-of-position midfielder was benched against Burnley.
Just replace him with , or even if you need a bit of cash, and accept the fact the fact that
if you really need some excitement in your life, your fifth midfielder isn't the best place to find it.
Top of the League
Faith in finally paid off for Mand her , who still sit proudly atop on 527 points. Big scores from 's and 's put them into second and third respectively.
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