The six-furlong sprint to the finishing line
No team in the Premier League has more than six games remaining — some, including Liverpool, have as few as four — and not only is time running out to overhaul rivals with a late, winning burst, but recent history suggests the last six doesn’t make as much difference to the top of the table as you might imagine.
Even when Manchester United managed only nine points from 18 in the last six games in 2013, they were able to hold onto first place and the only time any leader was overtaken was in 2012, when Manchester City famously won six games in a row to pip their deadly rivals on goal difference on the final day of the campaign.
In fact, City has been one of the strongest finishers in recent years, also taking 18 points from their last six 2014-15, though it wasn’t enough to win the title on that occasion, as Chelsea took the honours.
Similarly, Arsenal once picked up only five points from the last 18 in 2011, but still somehow scrambled into the Champions League places.
Arsene Wenger’s side knows they need far more this year; with five games to go, even 13 or 15 points from their last six matches (having already started the ball rolling with a victory over Leicester) may not be enough.
It is Tottenham, however, who may find the statistics most frustrating. They staged a mini- collapse last year when they managed only eight points from the last six games to end any hopes of the title, but know the odds of Chelsea following suit are pretty slim, as they prepare for a huge North London derby tomorrow.
“We need to keep fighting for the title,” said manager Mauricio Pochettino. “The team has improved a lot from last season, I know that for sure. We have to show it.”
It is not only the top two desperately searching for points, of course. The battle for European places and for survival is every bit as intense.
So what difference can the last six really make?
There’s no doubt we now have a two-horse race for the title, with four points separating leaders Chelsea and nearest rivals Tottenham going into the weekend. Antonio Conte’s side go to Everton tomorrow, a venue where they have often found life difficult, while Tottenham faces Arsenal looking to finish above them in the table for the first time since 1995. Victory for Pochettino’s men in the late kick-off would guarantee that, but catching Chelsea looks more difficult, when you consider Spurs must also face Man United at home and London rivals, West Ham, away in a tricky Friday night fixture next week.
What they say:
“We can’t focus on Chelsea. We have five tough games and we have to win them to have a chance. Hopefully, we can do that.
“If we continue to play with the right attitude, the right commitment and togetherness, for the rest of the season we will be OK, but we know we have tough games, not just Arsenal but Manchester United too. That’s the thing to focus on. We can’t control what Chelsea do. We can only control our own results.”
“The pressure is on Tottenham and we are just focusing on what we do. I’d be lying if I said there weren’t nerves in midweek against Southampton, but we won the game and we have to continue. This week, the manager and the staff have been telling us to keep focussed and keep the foot down. So far we’ve delivered.”
Southampton (h) 4-2, Everton (a) tomorrow, Middlesbrough (h) May 8, West Brom (a) May 12, Watford (h) May 15, Sunderland (h) May 21
Crystal Palace (a) 0-1, Arsenal (h) tomorrow, West Ham (a) May 5, Man United (h) May 14, Leicester (a) May 18, Hull (a) May 21
Finishing in the top four has been Arsenal’s calling-card for the last 20 years, but Arsene Wenger knows his proud record is in serious trouble if his team lose at Tottenham tomorrow. The battle is not limited to North London, however. Man Utd and Man City, having drawn 0-0 in the derby on Thursday, are also going head-to-head for Champions League football and Liverpool, having suddenly seen their form dip at the wrong time, are looking nervous. It could go right to the wire.
What they say:
“I don’t think the top three is decided. We have an opportunity to be in there, but only if we win the games. We don’t have to speculate on who is in and not and there is a lot that can happen. It is simple for us, the only advantage is we don’t have to calculate, we just have to win our games.”
“I think City will finish in the top four with the matches they have to play, I see them doing that. It’s between us, Arsenal and Liverpool for fourth. We are going to try, but the reality is we have a Europa League semi-final to play and lots of problems with players.”
“It is still in our hands, which is important. Every game will be a battle because, considering our average chances created and our average chances scored, it is lower and that is why we have to fight a lot to win the games. Leicester and Crystal Palace will not be easy. It will be tough until the last minute.”
“We are not here just to play the games and to be in the middle of nowhere, because of the quality of the team and a top manager, who won almost everything with Dortmund. Next season, we will again try to reach as many points as possible, but first, to finish this season well and qualify for the Champions League is vital.”
West Brom (a) 1-0, Crystal Palace (h) 1-2, Watford (a) May 1, Southampton (h) May 7, West Ham (a) May 14, Middlesbrough (h) May 21
Man United (h) 0-0, Middlesbrough (a) tomorrow, Crystal Palace (h) May 6, Leicester (h) May 13, West Brom (h) May 16, Watford (a) May 21
Man City (a) 0-0, Swansea (h) tomorrow, Arsenal (a) May 7, Tottenham (a) May 14, Southampton (a) May 17, Crystal Palace (h) May 21
Tottenham (a) April 30, Man United (h) May 7, Southampton (a) May 10, Stoke (a) May 16, Everton (h) May 21,
The race for survival is often the most dramatic and the most painful, and this year is no different. A betting man would probably suggest Sunderland, Middlesbrough, and one of Hull or Swansea are certainties to wave goodbye to the Premier League, but Burnley are not yet out of trouble and Bournemouth and Crystal Palace are not mathematically safe, either.
What they say:
“The players showed against Stoke that they can perform even when the anxiety and pressure is high. We have four games to go. The players are confident and I am confident that we can go and pick up valuable points in all of them.”
“I don’t know what the future will be, what I know is we will fight so hard to keep this club in the Premier League. We change nothing. We have to do our work and believe in our work.”
“We’re all in the business to win football matches. We’ve not won enough. Have we got enough games left to gain enough points? Yes, we have. There’s a positivity around these staff and players that will give us every chance to retain our Premier League status.”
Everton (a) 1-3, Man United (h) 0-2, Crystal Palace (a) today, West Brom (h) May 6, Bournemouth (a) May 13, West Ham (h) May 21
Stoke (a) 1-3, Watford (h) 2-0, Southampton (a) today, Sunderland (h) May 6, Crystal Palace (a) May 14, Tottenham (h) May 21
Watford (a) 0-1, Stoke (h) 2-0, Man United (a) tomorrow, Everton (h) May 6, Sunderland (a) May 13, Wes Brom (h) May 21
Bournemouth (a) 4-0, Sunderland (h) 1-0, Man City (h) tomorrow, Chelsea (a) May 8, Southampton (h) May 13, Liverpool (a) May 21
Middlesbrough (a) 1-0, Bournemouth (h) today, Hull (a) May 6, Swansea (h) May 13, Arsenal (a) May 16, Chelsea (a) May 21
There’s no doubt Man United have a tough run in and a worrying list of injuries, but don’t rule out a City collapse either - they play against a run of teams (Palace, Leicester, West Brom, Middlesbrough, Watford) who are notoriously defensive - just the kind of teams Pep Guardiola’s side hate.
It doesn’t take a genius to know Sunderland are going down. They are almost dead and buried already. If results go the wrong way this weekend relegation could be sealed long before they head to Chelsea on the final day.
If any team is going to win all six you suspect it will be Chelsea, as long as they can get over a tough trip to Everton tomorrow. Three home games should help Antonio Conte’s side win the title, regardless.
The North London derby at White Hart Lane is massive for both teams. And Sunderland against Hull could be huge if David Moyes’s side can survive until May 6. Look out for Arsenal-Man United on May 7 and Tottenham-United a week later, too.
The last six for the top six over the last six years
- 1. Leicester 12pts, 2. Arsenal 12, 3. Spurs 8, 4. Man City 9, 5. Man United 13, 6. Southampton 16
- 1. Chelsea 11pts, 2. City 18, 3. Arsenal 9, 4. United 5, 5. Spurs 10, 6. Liverpool 8
- 1. Man City 16, 2. Liverpool 13, 3. Chelsea 13, 4. Arsenal 15, 5. Everton 9, 6. Spurs 13
- 1. Man United 9, 2. Man City 10, 3. Chelsea 14, 4. Arsenal 14, 5. Spurs 14, 6. Everton 8
- 1. Man City 18, 2. Man United 10, 3. Arsenal 9, 4. Spurs 10, 5. Newcastle 9, 6. Chelsea 7
- 1. Man United 11, 2. Chelsea 10, 3. Man City 15, 4. Arsenal 5, 5. Spurs 9, 6. Liverpool 10
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