The week in Fantasy Premier League: The return of Eden Hazard, Aguero’s revenge, and When good stats go bad

As soon as you think you have this season sussed, along comes a player with a points haul that has you looking at your team with familiar contempt once again. This week, step forward Eden Hazard.

Of course, what makes it doubly frustrating for fantasy managers is that most of us already had him and sold him. Now flourishing in Antonio Conte’s new 3-4-3 formation, the Chelsea star is punishing his deserters in some style.

He’s hit more shots inside the box than any other midfielder in the last four gameweeks, and is matching teammate Diego Costa (CHE, 10.4) for shots on target, touches in the box and chances created.

Another player catching the eye of FPL managers this week is Ilkay Gündogan (MCI, 5.7) - two goals against Barcelona tends to do that.

That pricetag is certainly tempting, but doesn’t this all feel a bit too familiar? Any managers cursing the names of Heung-Min Son (TOT, 7.4) and Etienne Capoue (WAT, 5.0) should think twice before adding Gündogan to that list.

Doubts remain around both his gametime and attacking position once Kevin De Bruyne (MCI, 10.7) is back fully fit, and his scoring record at Borussia Dortmund (10 in 105 games) hardly inspires confidence.

He may prove decent value, but don’t expect this kind of scoring all, or even most, weeks.

So… did you keep Sergio Aguero?

Well, it would be remiss not to discuss the main talking point of the FPL community this week - the return to form of Sergio Aguero (MCI, 13.1).

The Man City marksman hit a brace past West Brom and has already recovered the £0.1m in value he lost as his many former owners scrambled to get him back in.

And of course, it sent the Twitter banter machine into overdrive.

This column, among others,

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So before you rub it in the nose of your Aguero-less mini-league rivals, remember - it’s just one gameweek, and whilst selling a big-name player who goes on to score the next week attracts attention and ridicule, the opportunity cost of hanging onto a flop is just as damaging.

Speaking of which...

Lies, Damned Lies and FPL Statistics

I love a good stat, and a good FPL stat can often uncover a real diamond in the rough.

And then there are times when they can really lead you down the garden path, all the way to the compost heap of mini-league oblivion. These are the times when good stats go bad.

Few have ever matched the false promise offered by the underlying stats of a certain Zlatan Ibrahimovic (MUN, 11.2).

Such has been his inability to turn all these shots into goals, it has actually prompted one FPL guru to rethink his whole approach to stats.

He’s not alone. In seasons gone by, Alberto Moreno (LIV, 4.6) and Jeffrey Schlupp (LEI, 4.9) were lauded as defenders who played far up the pitch and took loads of shots while they were up there.

Fantasy gold, right? But after watching them in a couple of matches, you’d quickly realise something the stats can’t always tell you - neither of them could shoot for toffee!

"He's done this before!"

🤖 @lfc18alberto tries a number of methods as he looks to beat @StanChart's #LFCWorld RoboKeeper! pic.twitter.com/L725LkqAD3

— Liverpool FC (@LFC) November 1, 2016

That’s why it’s so important to conduct the “eye test” of a player, as the Always Cheating podcasters put it, before deciding who to bring in.

Watching match highlights on Sky Sports, Match of the Day or some online source can really give you a feel for a player. There’s no statistics for body language, demeanor, or how a player looks when he celebrates a goal - but you’d be amazed at how much they can tell you about a player’s form and future potential.

.@hazardeden10 has been announced as the PFA's Fans’ Premier League Player of the Month for October! 👏 https://t.co/XjQdgkMMPc pic.twitter.com/bU2ScONFF3

— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) November 2, 2016

One of the greatest joys of FPL is going with your gut, investing in an under-the-radar player and seeing that faith pay off in big points returns. And after all, surely having fun is what playing games is all about?

QUICK TIP

Having a decent, cheap goalkeeper can save you a lot of FPL cash and headaches as the season progresses. Right now, Tom Heaton (BUR,4.7) looks like a season-keeper (if you’ll pardon the pun).

Thomas David Heaton 🦇 👏#Brickwall #MUNBUR pic.twitter.com/FyuAKMxYj0

— FPL Intellect (@FPLIntellect) October 29, 2016

BUY

Eden Hazard (CHE, 9.9)

The Chelsea attacker’s return of 30 points in three games is impossible to ignore, and he has both the pedigree and the underlying stats to keep this run going.

With that pricetag, and so many other high-priced suitors to consider, shoehorning him into your team won’t be easy - but huge rewards could await those who do.

TRY

Another proven performer with impressive underlying stats recently is Christian Eriksen (TOT, 8.2). Just 5.1% owned, the points haven’t been as forthcoming though, but that could all change if he gets the right rub of the green.

Christian Eriksen (4) created more chances than any other player in the first half, and more than every Leicester player combined (3).

— Spurs Stat Man (@spursstatman) October 29, 2016

The imminent return of Harry Kane (TOT, 10.1) should help turn those chances created into full-blown assists if you're prepared to wait for them.

GOODBYE

Nobody encapsulates this volatile season like Etienne Capoue (WAT, 5.1). In Gameweek 6 he was a free-scoring must-have - now managers can’t sell him quickly enough!

It’s hardly a surprise though - alternatives such as Joe Allen (STO, 5.2) and Nemanja Matic (CHE, 5.0) have far more appeal, and traditional benchwarmers can be found for as little as £4.3m. It’s time to cash in.

Top of the League

Sanchez (captain), Hazard, Lukaku and Aguero combined to help give Micheàl Nevins’ team, MultipleScoregasams, an impressive 96 points, putting him top of the Official Irish Examiner League (join code: 251768-521616). A few players broke the 100-point mark for the week, including top-10 rivals Paul Condon (105) and Damien Poyner (101).