Could this be a year the group stage misleads?

Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti: The Spanish club are dreaming of a clean sweep.

The knock-out round of the Champions League often has an awful predictability to it. More repeats than the Christmas TV schedule. Finish second in your group and you go out in the next round. That’s what the lore says anyway, if not quite the law.

Over the past four seasons just five of the 32 runners-up have won through to the quarter-final stage. Last season the tournament was more lopsided than ever, symbolised by Schalke’s 9-2 thrashing at the hands of Real Madrid. The second-placed qualifiers managed a solitary win in their 16 matches and the overall scoreline was group winners 38 runners-up 13.

Could yesterday’s draw produce a different outcome? In 2010 both Bayern Munich and Inter Milan finished the group stage in second place and went on to contest the final. Lyon, another runner-up, reached the semi-final. A freak year, perhaps, yet it is also a reminder that the winter months, and in some cases, winter breaks, can produce changes in form. Sometimes the group stage can also be misleading.

This may be such a year, as three of the group stage winners are far from unbeatable. Monaco, Borussia Dortmund and Porto all look vulnerable although we can expect the German outfit to use the winter break to review tactics and recover fitness.

Juventus have been talking up their chances, despite a ropey group stage, arguing that their squad is on a par with all but the best three or four sides in the tournament.

Manchester City may disagree, but on balance the draw has probably been kinder to the English than the Germans. Real Madrid are starting to dream of a clean sweep of trophies, starting with the Club World Cup in Morocco and both the Madrid clubs will fancy their chances against Bundesliga opposition.

Bayern are in a happier position, with potentially the easiest tie of the round. The football season in Ukraine does not restart until February 28, and Shakhtar’s home game will presumably again be switched to the other side of the country.

No one can predict changes in form and personnel over the next two months other than to say they will happen. The fixture list is a different matter. With the ties spread over a four-week period, achieving a balance between European and domestic matches is going to be tough for several managers.

Juventus will play their first leg against Dortmund with at least half an eye on their away match against Roma the following Sunday.

Arsenal have derby games, against Crystal Palace and West Ham, before both their matches against Monaco. The good news for Arsene Wenger, facing his former club, is that Monaco will also have fixture pressure: they have a needle match against Nice before they visit the Emirates and their following game is at home to Paris Saint Germain.

In the tie of the round, City and Barcelona will also face a challenge. City play Newcastle and go to Liverpool either side of the first leg while Barcelona have what should be straightforward games against Malaga and away to Granada.

Three weeks later however Barcelona have a potentially season-defining home game against Real Madrid immediately after the second leg against City.

In the Europa League, Liverpool will face a challenge of their own before that game against City. In total contrast to the staggered fixtures in the Champions League, the Europa League matches are back-to-back on consecutive Thursdays, so the long trip to play Besiktas is immediately followed by a huge match at Anfield. Both Istanbul and Besiktas will no doubt revive positive memories on Merseyside but this is another demanding fixture coincidence in a season where Liverpool have looked jaded after European games. Likewise Tottenham have to cope with a derby at QPR immediately following a Thursday night in Florence.

This is the stage at which the Europa League can seem more like a chore than a prize, both to players and to supporters. But now that winning the competition brings qualification for the Champions League, as well as a significant amount of cash, treating it lightly could be a serious mistake. The challenge for all those involved will be managing their squads and deciding which players to rest and when.