A win so vital as Wenger on shaky ground

Tonight’s FA Cup semi-final against Wigan is one of the most important in Arsene Wenger’s entire career — and will go a long way to deciding his future.

In the current opinion polls Arsene Wenger is cast as a fool, a man who should be ushered quietly off the stage and into retirement. Yet in November he was a genius, a man who had stuck by his principles and was being rewarded as Arsenal played some of the finest football since he arrived at the club in 1996.

So which is he, a fool or a genius? Well he certainly isn’t a fool, but many would question if he is a genius.

As Wenger has often stated, no other industry makes knee-jerk judgement calls as often as football does, with individuals lauded one week and pilloried the next.

What is clear is that today’s FA Cup semi-final against Wigan is one of the most pivotal matches of the Frenchman’s career. If Arsenal are defeated by their Championship opponents, ending their chances of lifting a trophy for the first time in nine years, the clamour for him not to leave at the end of the season will be deafening.

Win the entire competition — and Arsenal would be overwhelming favourites against either Hull or Sheffield United in the final — and he could see a new golden era stretching in front of him and decide to commit to the two-year deal currently on the table.

After the retirement of Alex Ferguson last summer, Wenger is the last of the old guard still standing, with whippersnappers like Brendan Rodgers and Roberto Martinez swiftly filling the void and the column inches.

Critics point to the fact he has gone almost a decade without a trophy; his supporters point out that 16 consecutive years in the Champions League is a quite astonishing achievement. To put that into context, Google did not exist the last time Arsenal failed to qualify for Europe’s premier competition.

Unfortunately for Wenger, it cannot be debated that his detractors are growing in number and are becoming ever more vocal.

First, though, we should put Arsenal’s recent travails in context. Back in 2000, when Arsenal bought the land on which the Emirates Stadium currently stands, they were locked in a perennial battle with Manchester United at the top of the Premier League. Few people had heard of Roman Abramovich or Sheikh Mansour, and Arsenal could not have known what their rivals would do over the next decade.

They committed to financial parsimony to pay off the construction costs of over €567m. That trait exists today with the website Swiss Ramble stating that Arsenal made €8.45m in the 2012-13 season while Manchester City lost €62.79m.

It is a staggering difference, with Abramovich estimated to have put in the region of €1.33bn to lift Chelsea to their current heights.

In that respect, Wenger’s ability to keep Arsenal in the top four must be lauded, particularly as the players he nurtured — Robin van Persie, Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri in particular — did not have the same patience as him and left for pastures new.

“I went for a change that I knew would be difficult because we had to fight with clubs who could survive losses of £150 million (€180m) a year, and we had to make £30 (€33m) million [to finance the new stadium payments],” said Wenger on the occasion of his 1,000th game in charge of Arsenal.

“On top of that, we had people saying ‘you have to beat them’. If I ask you tomorrow to race with Usain Bolt and win the race, you will realise quickly it is difficult. [But] I think we can be proud of the consistency of our achievement at the club.”

Yet as with much of Wenger’s best work, he is recalling past achievements rather than current success. That 1,000th game ended in a 6-0 defeat to Chelsea, which followed 6-3 and 5-1 losses to Manchester City and Liverpool, respectively, and preceded last Sunday’s pitiful 3-0 loss at Everton.

This was meant to be the season where it ended differently, where finishing fourth was no longer enough. Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea had all changed managers and Wenger’s presence was supposed to be crucial. Instead, we have seen the same old failings.

If Alex Ferguson’s teams were characterised by their ruthlessness and Jose Mourinho’s by an obdurate desire to do anything necessary to win, Wenger’s latest incarnation is in danger of being remembered for their spinelessness rather than their vim and vigour.

On Thursday, Wenger said: “What has been strange this season is that for a long time we looked very strong defensively, we had an outstanding defensive record, and we lost it suddenly. That’s the surprise of the season for me.”

It is hard to imagine Ferguson or Mourinho claiming to be baffled by their side’s frailties. And the sticking point is that the frailties are always the same; a lack of cover when injuries hit, those injuries being worse than almost any other top side, a paucity of leaders to match the likes of Patrick Vieira and Tony Adams, and a number of players who pick up healthy pay packets for little return.

Arsenal supporters could forgive the fact Chelsea and Manchester City have won 12 major trophies between them since Wenger lifted the FA Cup in 2005, but Manchester United have won nine, Liverpool three and Tottenham, Portsmouth, Birmingham, Wigan and Swansea one each.

The other crucial difference is Arsenal now have money to spend — and have done for three years. The arrival of Mesut Ozil for €50.96m was easy to afford for a club with 145.62m in cash reserves.

That their reserve of strikers extends to Nicklas Bendtner and Yaya Sanogo is almost a dereliction of duty by Wenger, who must have known that the willing but slightly limited Olivier Giroud could not cope with the pressure on his own.

Hence the constant call from fans that either the manager must change or the club must change manager. His loyalty to players written off elsewhere has been spectacularly rewarded in the form of Aaron Ramsey, but not in the cases of Bendtner, the stricken Abou Diaby or the likes of Denilson.

There is the basis of a fine team there, though, if he adds depth this summer. The question is whether he will be willing to spend the money necessary to do so.

It is also worth asking who could come in and do a finer job. Consistent success — and the definition of success varies from club to club — is the most valuable commodity in sport. Ferguson virtually guaranteed it, as Mourinho seems to now.

Last season, Jurgen Klopp was riding the crest of a wave but his Borussia Dortmund side have failed to scale those heights again. Martinez has shown immense promise but he would still be a gamble for a club of Arsenal’s size.

If Wenger and Arsenal were to part ways, though, neither would be short of offers, with the Frenchman’s standing on the continent still incredibly high.

Yet it would be fitting if he could bow out from the Emirates entirely on his terms, as Ferguson did at Manchester United. An FA Cup win might not be enough, although rumour has it that Wenger has not told even his closest confidantes what he will do next season — simply because he has not decided himself.

Now what he must do is win the FA Cup and claim a top four spot; an ambition which is still highly achievable, considering Arsenal’s run-in is easier than Everton. If he does that, then he needs to show steel and ambition in the transfer market and even pay over the odds for players.

Per Mertesacker’s reaction to Ozil’s failure to applaud the Arsenal fans after their defeat at City — the German angrily screamed in his fellow countryman’s face — was warmly received by Arsenal’s support because it has been so sorely lacking.

Leaders of that calibre are required, with top-class support alongside them. If Wenger feels he has the strength to bring them in and add them to a team that is not that far away from success, then he should stay; if not he should say what would still be a fond goodbye.

Yet first he must beat Wigan. Then he can avoid being called an idiot — for one week at least.