Spain are victims of their own success

No side has ever won three major titles in-a-row.

That is the goal that must drive Spain on, first against France in today’s quarter-final. They are already one of the greatest international sides in history: success in Euro 2012 might confirm them as the greatest. To sustain success over a four-year period, to keep churning out performances, to maintain the hunger, to avoid tactical predictability… it would be an astonishing achievement.

And to have the luck. The West Germany team of the seventies have come closest to winning three in-a-row but, having won the European Championship in 1972 and the World Cup in 1974 they were beaten in a penalty shoot-out in the final of Euro 76. Was that bad luck? Perhaps not, for Czechoslovakia held a 2-0 lead at one point but there was something vaguely farcical about coming so close to success only to be beaten by a dinked penalty from an obscure moustachioed midfielder from Bohemians.

Through the low-scoring nature of the game, the management of luck is part of football. Every team will have one of those days when 20 shots don’t go in and the opposition steals a goal on the break. Spain were fortunate they had their misfortune in the opening group game of the last World Cup when they lost to Switzerland. They were able to recover from that by winning their next six matches, but it’s almost as though that game taught them a lesson, the same lesson that Alex Ferguson learned in Manchester United’s 3-2 defeat by Real Madrid in 2000. And that is, that it is much safer for a team to have, say, six chances to the opponent’s none than to have 25 to the opponent’s three.

Spain went through the rest of that World Cup scoring eight goals in six games, conceding only one and never looking like losing. After Spain’s 1-0 win over Croatia, Slaven Bilic, the Croatia manager, noted that Spain looked “vulnerable” while Croatia’s captain, Darijo Srna, suggested that Spain would have to change their approach if they were to go on and win the Euros. They were right — up to a point: the group situation, which for over an hour meant that a Croatia goal could have eliminated Spain, did give a sense of anxiety. Ivan Rakitic did have a great headed chance that he directed straight at Iker Casillas.

Croatia probably should have a late penalty when Sergio Busquets pulled the shirt of Vedran Corluka. But that was it.

Two chances in the whole game, and one of them after Spain had scored when conceding a goal wouldn’t have mattered. Little wonder Vicente Del Bosque was happy enough having seen a re-run of the game.

“We didn’t have much incisiveness, it’s true,” he said. “But it was a good game. We knew a draw was enough. And we went through. Croatia had a shot, but not much else. They played well and denied us space. They constructed a spider’s web and it wasn’t easy. Sometimes moves don’t come off by millimetres, small technical details that don’t quite happen.”

The message was clear: Spain are happy to hold the ball, to use their passing attritionally. Some may be bored of it, but tiki taka has always had its defensive aspect and it’s hard to understand the hostility Spain face for essentially doing through mastery of the ball what others look to do by packing men behind the ball. “When you are world champions, it’s difficult to get better amid that euphoria and expectation,” said Andres Iniesta, probably Spain’s most dangerous player so far. “It makes it harder. Are we a victim of our own success? Yes. The team has earned this perception and it is higher than in previous years.”

It’s demanded that Spain put on a show – “We have gone from poor to rich very quickly and we don’t value what we have,” Del Bosque noted – but when others pack their defence against them it’s almost impossible for them to do. The USA in the Confederations Cup in 2009 showed how to play against Spain: keep the back four deep, keep the midfield narrow, cede the flanks trusting that Spain’s lack of aerial power means crosses won’t be a threat, and look to strike on the break or through set-plays. Chile aside, every team Spain has played since in a tournament game has done something similar.

So Spain, logically enough, have met reactive negativity with proactive negativity, holding the ball almost mechanically: tiki-taka has become ticky-tock. They have no obligation to entertain. The only slightly surprising thing is that Del Bosque has opted to try to counter the massed defences with strikerlessness or Fernando Torres, hoping the fluidity of a six-man (and no-forward) midfield or of a five-man midfield (and Torres pulling wide) will pick holes in massed rearguards, rather than using the immense physical threat of Fernando Llorente, who might at least force defences to play a little higher — who wants him attacking headers form 15 yards out? — leaving space behind them.

But even that is consistent with Del Bosque’s policy of control; crosses risk losing possession, and that has become his absolute taboo.