Germans can take crown of jaded champions

The odds are on Spain to retain their European crown for good reason.

No country has ever won three major tournaments in a row. Spain have the talent, they have the tactics, they have the desire and obviously they have the experience. This is their time.

Or is it?

When Real Madrid and Barcelona reached the Champions League semi-finals after barely breaking sweat it looked as though the Spanish were about to wrap up every title on earth. Especially with the Europa League turning into the consolation prize for La Liga’s also-rans.

Three Europa League semi-finalists from the same country indicates strength in depth. Yet the Portuguese managed it in 2011 and Europe’s second competition does seem to produce derbies in the final stages: Sevilla and Espanyol, Shakhtar Donetsk and Dinamo Kyiv.

More telling was the fate of the Big Two, both defeated by inferior opponents despite the advantage of playing the second leg at home. Not a coincidence argues Andrea De Benedetti, journalist for Italian football magazine Guerin Sportivo.

“The real difficulty for Real Madrid and Barcelona was that over the course of the season they played too many sides who didn’t even attempt to resist them, happy to act like a mirror for their beauty.”

Bayern and Chelsea by contrast had a much tougher time in the league and thus provided far sterner opposition when it came to the crunch.

“It was a healthy dose of realism for two clubs that were in danger of subjecting Europe to the same sort of dictatorship they’ve imposed domestically.”

Neither Barcelona nor Real Madrid managed to find the extra gear they needed to reach the final and some of their players looked jaded by the end of the season. The stars of Athletic Bilbao’s Europa League campaign, Javi Martinez and Fernando Llorente, both seemed burnt out by the time they reached the final.

Spain’s other concern must be where the goals will come from. Messi and Ronaldo have been so prolific (along with players such as Higuain and Benzema at Madrid) that it has disguised the lack of Spanish firepower. Andres Iniesta and David Silva can both finish well, but the absence of David Villa means that a lot of weight falls on Fernando Torres.

Torres looks much sharper than he did. Winning a couple of trophies should have done his confidence good. But still no one knows how he will react to that pressure after being dropped back in February.

Spain essentially play in one way. Technically brilliant, hard to resist, but to a certain extent predictable. Germany have the advantage that they can mix things up. They are a younger side than Spain — 10 of them under the age of 23 — and their most dynamic players, such as Mario Goetze and Marco Reus, are champing at the bit.

Germany’s Dortmund contingent, buoyed by a league and cup double, are fit and well-rested. They’ve also played significantly fewer games than most of the Spanish players.

Historically the Germans have gone for the traditional approach. Total Football is for others. Centre-backs defend, wingers fly down the wings, there’s a centre-forward who scores goals.

Sometimes anyway, because if there’s one major doubt in the German camp it concerns Mario Gomez. The Bayern man has been among the top scorers in Europe this season but, as we saw against Chelsea in Munich, he has an ability to unerringly miss the target as well. He’s been similarly unreliable in other big games this season, and while most of Europe expects him to be Joachim Löw’s first-choice striker, back home in Germany there is a strong lobby for the veteran Miroslav Klose, or perhaps even the rookie Reus.

Germany have the balance in their side to win: speed and precision in attack, a good defence, and a very good goalkeeper in Manuel Neuer. The big unknown is how the squad will gel.

Thomas Mueller is reported to be at loggerheads with his club while Jerome Boateng appears to have enjoyed a wild night in a Berlin Hotel before joining up with his team mates.

The Bayern contingent, all eight of them, should form a nucleus. But that shoot-out defeat in front of their own fans has left some scars.

The Germans need to hit the ground running but if the mood is right they could well go all the way.