This one’s about to explode

Cristiano Ronaldo looked to his feet. Leo Messi looked to the sky. And, all around, their team-mates looked expectantly to the two of them.

Because, in midweek, we had a rare mishap. Neither Ronaldo nor Messi scored. And, as such, neither Real Madrid nor Barcelona won. They didn’t even draw.

That, seemingly, is what the 2011/2012 season — and tonight’s Clasico — has come down to for the two biggest and best clubs in the world.

Before you criticise us for getting caught up in unhelpful hype around individuals in a team game though, it’s worth considering the facts. When this duopoly first began to properly demand attention ahead of the 2009 Champions League final, it was undoubtedly exaggerated.

Younger and further away from their peak, neither player was quite the dominant presence they are now; neither of their teams so dependent. That has changed. The attention is now fully justified.

You only have to look at this season’s staggering stats — and we don’t mean the most obvious ones like their record-breaking goal counts. There’s the actual meaning of those goals.

For a start, both players have been involved — in terms of scoring or assisting — in at least half of their teams’ strikes in the league (Messi 56%, Ronaldo 49%). That marks a continual — and astonishing — improvement for both since the Portuguese first arrived. At the end of that 2009/10 season, Ronaldo was involved in 32% of his team’s goals, Messi 49%. Secondly — and most importantly — both have been directly responsible for 31% of their teams’ points so far. In other words, they have hit a ludicrous amount of equalisers or match-winners. Messi has single-handedly secured 25 points, Ronaldo 26.

To put that into some kind of context, the best thatEnglish football has ever seen in that regard was when Thierry Henry individually ensured 28% of Arsenal’s total from the ‘Invincibles’ season.

Ultimately, it all means no title race — in any European league — has been so dominated or defined by two players in such a way.

But it also gives rise to bigger questions. For one, how exactly have the campaigns of two such massive clubs come down to the form of two forwards to such a reductive degree? Well, with Ronaldo, Real had already adjusted their entire system in order to properly funnel his speed on his arrival. And, since then, there can be little doubt he has matured as a player under Jose Mourinho in a manner many thought impossible.

As Real have recently run out of energy and there have been growing complaints from insiders about the team’s cohesion, Ronaldo has filled the gaps. With extreme prejudice. Look at his recent rescue jobs against Atletico Madrid and Gijon. So, not only is Ronaldo the focal point, he’s the only one actually fit and firing.

The same is true of Messi... but in a different way. Clearly mindful of the effects of three years of success on Barca’s fitness and hunger, Pep Guardiola has rested the spine of his team much more. All of Andres Iniesta, Gerard Pique and Carlos Puyol have only played half of Barcelona’s league games. Xavi has played fewer minutes than in any other season under Guardiola. And, after a prolific start, Cesc Fabregas and Alexis Sanchez have only scored two goals between them in the last two months.

The only constant, in every sense, has been Messi. He’s played almost every game and, in the process, covered for absent or underperforming team-mates spectacularly.

Can both continue to do so tonight? Well, this is one area where their records differ to a point that may be decisive. Messi has proven pedigree in the Clasico. He’s scored key goals in three of the most important — the 6-2 in May 2009; the 2-0 title decider at this exact point in 2010 and, of course, the two goals at the Bernabeu in last year’s Champions League semi-final — as well as many more.

Ronaldo, by contrast, has yet to score a truly important Clasico goal. Either that will have to change tonight, or the habit of a season will for his team-mates.