Favourable Rugby World Cup draw gives Ireland clear chance of ending knockout pain

A potential quarter-final against Argentina, should they negotiate the pool stage and round of 16 successfully, looms for Ireland. 

For the third consecutive Rugby World Cu, Ireland will play Scotland in the pool stage. Scotland have not beaten Ireland since 2017. Pic: Brendan Moran/Sportsfile

If Andy Farrell is going to make history by leading Ireland into the business end of a Men’s Rugby World Cup after 40 years of knockout pain, Wednesday’s pool draw for Australia 2027 has provided the pathway.

And yet again it is a match against Scotland that represents the pivotal fork in the road. For the third tournament in a row, Farrell will go head-to-head with Gregor Townsend as the Six Nations rivalry moves on from Yokohama and Saint-Denis to the land Down Under with Portugal and Uruguay the other competitors making up Pool D of an expanded 24-team competition.

Both Portugal and Uruguay will be first-time World Cup opponents for the Irish, although the former’s brave showing at France 2023 appears to have been a one-off if last July’s 106-7 hammering of the Portuguese in Lisbon by a second-string Ireland side missing 17 Lions is any guide.

Nor is it the only one-sided relationship in the pool. Townsend and the Scots will not need reminding they have failed to defeat Ireland in their last 11 attempts, their most recent victory having come in February 2017. There will be two chances to rectify that, of course, in the Six Nations championships preceding the global kick-off in October 2027, but when it comes to World Cup meetings the scar tissue will run deep following 27-3 and 36-14 pool hammerings in 2019 and 2023 respectively.

A third successive Ireland victory, at a venue and date to be announced by tournament organisers when they reveal the fixture schedule on February 3, already appears non-negotiable given the fall-out which would follow them into the knockout rounds.

Farrell’s men got the rough end of the 2023 draw when they were pitted with defending champions South Africa in their pool, and hosts France and New Zealand on the same half of the bracket. They beat the Springboks as well as Scotland to top the pool but fell agonisingly short to an All Blacks side hell-bent on vengeance following their 2022 home series defeat as another World Cup campaign ended at the quarter-final stage.

This time around in Australia, the path seems more palatable, providing they can see off their bitter rivals. Topping Pool D, which a victory over Scotland would surely give the Irish, would see them into the new Round of 16 stage to face one of the four best third-placed teams from the six groups. Progress to the quarters and there is the potential for a quarter-final with Argentina and a semi-final with familiar foes England. Not easy but considerably more favourable than the alternative.

Lose to the Scots and it is straight into a last 16 clash on the other side of a draw containing back-to-back champions South Africa, the All Blacks and France and we’ve all been there before.

An expanded tournament, from 20 to 24 teams, has not lessened the jeopardy at the sharp end of the competition, it would appear and the stakes for Ireland’s World Cup hopes are now patently clear.