Joe Schmidt: World Cup pool games will spring a surprise somewhere

Schmidt will be Wallabies head coach for their first three games of 2026 but will then hand the reins to Les Kiss

Joe Schmidt has coached at three Rugby World Cups. Pic: ©INPHO/Nick Elliott

Ireland will be happy with the outcome of Wednesday morning’s 2027 Rugby World Cup pool draw but Joe Schmidt has served an early reminder as to just how best-laid plans can go awry when it comes to the competition itself.

The current Wallabies head coach could have pointed to how his top-ranked Ireland side was upset by Japan at the 2019 tournament when losing a pool game in Shizuoka. He didn’t. Maybe that one is still a bit too raw.

Schmidt looked back another four years again instead, to the original of the species when it comes to Japanese giant-killing acts at the World Cup: their famous win over the Springboks in Brighton in the 2015 pool stages.

“I guess you just take nothing for granted, having coached at three World Cups and just some of those permutations. You start plotting a pathway through, and that pathway changes completely because somebody upsets someone.

“I remember sitting in a changing room after [Ireland] played Canada in our first game in 2015 and watching Japan beat South Africa. Nobody predicted that. That's one of the great things about World Cups. There's going to be a surprise in those pool matches somewhere, and so I don't think you can afford to get too predictive.” 

Ireland have been paired with Scotland for the third tournament in succession. Uruguay and Spain will be the other two opponents in Pool D. Top that and Ireland will face a third-placed side in the round of 16 and then Argentina in a quarter-final.

England would be the likely obstacle in the last four should Ireland make history and breach the quarters for the first time but, as Schmidt has warned, somebody somewhere is going to find their path diverted or ended unexpectedly.

Finish runner-up in Pool D and Ireland would have France in the last eight.

The hosts have been handed a fascinating hand in Pool A where they will face arch-rivals and neighbours New Zealand. An opening night meeting, in Perth on October 1, looks like the obvious pairing to get the event underway.

“There's a lot of matchups, England-Wales, Ireland-Scotland. There's a lot of clumps that are going to be teams that know each other and play each other often. So they'll be looking at Australia and thinking, ‘well, at least we're going to know who we're up against’.

“We're going to know them almost personally,” said Schmidt. “And it's a trans-Tasman battle, which I think both teams are going to love having. Yeah, it's fascinating.” 

Schmidt will be a spectator at that point. The Kiwi will continue as Wallabies boss for the first three games of 2026 when they face Ireland, France and Italy, and then hand the reins over to his former Ireland assistant Les Kiss who is at present over the Queensland Reds.

“I was on a call with Les and a couple of other staff for 75 minutes earlier today, and then we had another call at the end of the day, so we're very connected in what's happening around the Wallabies.

“But I want to make sure that he gets a really good run with the Reds … to make sure that's where his focus stays. And then he'll join us for some of the time in that July window, and then he'll take over the next two Tests against Japan.

“That'll be when Les gets a fresh voice (sic). I think it could really help just give a little bit more energy to the players. Again, that's all in the future.”