New Zealand's future comes down to Italy square off

The top rugby nations don’t fear the All Blacks as they once did because Ian Foster’s men cannot find the consistency of belief and purpose that seems to be second nature to Ireland

EASY DOES IT: New Zealand's Damian McKenzie scores his side's third try of the game against Namibia at the Stade de Toulouse. Pic: PA

The All Blacks have broken so much new ground over the past couple of years in losing a test series to Ireland at home, among other low points for the game here, that it is dangerous to assume they will breeze past Italy to make the quarter-finals of this World Cup.

They have already made history in France by losing their first ever pool match – the 27-13 reverse in Paris a fortnight ago - which featured more evidence that there is a mental fragility to this side which wasn’t present even four years ago when they crashed out of the World Cup in Tokyo in the semi-final at the hands of England. Attempting to win three tournaments in a row in 2019, they at least fired significant shots against the Springboks (which put New Zealand on the tougher side of the draw), and Ireland, whom they thrashed in the quarter-final.

So, the match against Italy in Lyon next Friday night, which will effectively decide whether they progress to the first knockout stage (it’s probably safe to say Uruguay won’t trouble them too much in Lyon six days later), is a hugely important one in the context of this tournament before a probable quarter-final meeting against an Irish side which appears to have none of those psychological frailties.

At least, not on the evidence of their 13-8 victory over South Africa at the Stade de France. Most rugby supporters here recognise that Ireland’s victory over a world champion side which handed the All Blacks a record defeat at Twickenham recently has given them the easier route to the semi-finals.

The Boks’ reward is to play France in front of what will likely be an intimidating home crowd.

The top rugby nations don’t fear the All Blacks as they once did because Ian Foster’s men cannot find the consistency of belief and purpose that seems to be second nature to this Irish side.

Ireland faced adversity early in Paris. They turned down an early penalty shot at goal in favour of an attacking lineout which they promptly lost (incredibly, they lost six in total), and were behind for 33 minutes until Mack Hansen’s try.

And yet despite that and the Springboks’ infamous smothering defence, they played with composure and a freedom on attack – helped, it must be said, by New Zealand-born midfielder Bundee Aki who is playing as well as he ever has at the age of 33.

Ireland’s scrum was outstanding and their defence inspirational at times. They are disciplined, too, which is imperative in World Cups. They conceded nine penalties to South Africa’s 11 – another victory at this tournament for a team that gave up fewer penalties than the opposition.

By contrast, New Zealand conceded 12 penalties to France’s four in the World Cup opener and gave up another 12 in their 71-3 victory over Namibia a week later. If the pressure exerted by France in Paris explains the lopsided penalty count in favour of the home side, the same cannot be said for Namibia, a team of semi-professionals who have never won a World Cup match.

A high-tackle red card for prop Ethan de Groot in that match was the fourth card issued to an All Black in their last three matches – a possible symptom of a malaise caused by a lack of belief or clarity in their game plan.

One of New Zealand’s traditional strengths as a rugby nation is its players’ ability to find and exploit space through their attacking instincts but the international game now is so oriented towards defence that the All Blacks struggle to adapt when that space is taken away.

It is a trend that started in 2017 when the British and Irish Lions drew their series in New Zealand by bringing rush defence to a new level and the All Blacks still haven’t found a way to consistently break that down.

Here’s another thing: Fly-half Richie Mo’unga, a key figure in the all-conquering Crusaders Super Rugby teams of the past seven years, is one of the best No 10s in the world but hasn’t always been backed by head coach Ian Foster, who favoured Beauden Barrett in the position until it was clear even to him that Mo’unga was the best in the country. Barrett was moved to fullback but the pair haven’t always worked in harmony on attack.

Here’s another: South Africa’s departure from Super Rugby since 2020 means New Zealand teams are exposed only to the Australasian style of the game which is more attack-minded. It is perhaps instructive that the Crusaders won their seven consecutive titles on the back of their hugely impressive set piece and defensive system (and Mo’unga, of course).

This tournament will likely be Mo’unga’s final assignment with the All Blacks. At the age of 29, he has signed a three-year deal with a Japanese club – the first time that such an important All Black in his prime and with the best years ahead of him has decided to leave. His departure means he is ineligible for New Zealand selection.

Would he have stayed had Foster backed him more strongly earlier in this career? It’s hard to say (and Crusaders coach Scott Robertson will take over next year), but, for All Blacks’ fans, it’s an unwanted first – just as it’s probably the first time a World Cup quarter-final against the All Blacks is seen as an easier option than one against France.

The slimmest of straws to grasp here is that most of us down under are well aware Ireland have never won a World Cup knockout match. The expectation on Andy Farrell’s men will only grow from here. How they handle that will be key but at this early stage it appears they can.