Fabien Galthie would prefer to meet South Africa in the last eight

SUPERSTAR: France captain Antoine Dupont will be key to the host nations' hopes. Pic: Adam Davy/PA Wire

The World Cup kicks off at Stade de France next Friday with a barnstormer of a clash between hosts France and New Zealand.

It goes without saying that both sides want to open their championship challenge with a statement victory.

But a result that France will have no control over - from a game in the other pool on the difficult side of the draw, featuring four of the pre-tournament favourites for the title, and the top five countries in World Rugby's rankings - is likely to have major implications for their World Cup bid.

Fabien Galthie’s entire system since 2020 has been built on his fundamental “winning matches, winning trophies” ethos. That hasn’t changed. It’s not going to change between now and the end of his contract after the 2027 World Cup, let alone this one.

And there are few bigger statements than inflicting a first-ever pool phase loss on the All Blacks, who have recently overtaken France in World Rugby’s rankings after a run of victories that effectively silenced the majority of coach Ian Foster’s critics.

By the same token, a loss in the opening Pool A match will not be disastrous for either side.

It’s also not unreasonable to assume both France and New Zealand would beat other Pool A opponents Italy, Uruguay, and Namibia to qualify for the knockout phase.

It’s what happens in Pool B - Ireland’s pool - that matters. In particular the match on September 23 between Ireland and South Africa.

Setting aside the possible disruptor role of Pool B rivals Scotland, this is the match that is most likely to decide one and two in Pool B - and, therefore, who France face in the quarter-finals.

Given the choice, Galthie would prefer to meet South Africa in the last eight, rather than the prospect of meeting them in the final. The reason? It’s not that whoever beats Ireland in a World Cup knockout match has a habit of falling at the next hurdle. It’s the fact that a fully tournament-hardened South Africa would be near-impossible to beat if they get to the final. Meeting them earlier won't be easy, far from it, but it would be easier.

Opening night is important for France. But, it won’t necessarily set the tone for their tournament. They will set out to win - but the possibility of a loss is already factored in, given their opponents. As they expect to make it out of their pool, that result not as important as who they will face in the quarter-finals.

And if they do beat New Zealand, they’d like South Africa to beat Ireland. If they lose, they would prefer the opposite. Given the choice. But they really don't have one.