Rugby World Cup 2023: a year away and still entirely unpredictable

Recent results and performances in both hemispheres show the margins in international rugby have rarely been finer

NO EARLY FAVOURITES: New Zealand's Will Jordan, right, leaps to catch the ball during the third rugby international between the All Blacks and Ireland. (Andrew Cornaga/Photosport via AP)

MUCH can change in the space of 12 months. Just ask Boris Johnson. Or, indeed, Vladimir Putin. In politics, as well as rugby union, it pays to assume very little. If anyone a year ago had predicted yellow and blue Ukrainian flags fluttering in every British town or Liz Truss becoming the UK’s next prime minister they would have been quietly escorted from the building.

Which is why the world’s leading rugby nations should assume nothing a year out from the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Right now you would probably back France to beat New Zealand on the tournament’s opening night. But if there are untimely French injuries or a Parisian monsoon would you put your chateau on it? Call it the Truss Effect. Because if the past two months have shown anything it is that the rugby world has rarely been less stable or predictable.