Not everything is black in New Zealand

As the Six Nations kicks off, New Zealand All Blacks are being fed slowly back into their respective Super Rugby franchises ahead of the new campaign — but with more than an eye on the World Cup and beyond. Paul Cully in Dunedin explains.

The mood in New Zealand among those who opinions carry weight is one of quiet confidence.

Former All Blacks coaches Laurie Mains and John Hart believe the All Blacks are favourites for the Rugby World Cup because of the November loss to Ireland, not in spite of it. Ireland have stirred the beast, they say, and the world had better watch itself.

Yet even those whose blood runs black are looking over the horizon after the tournament in Japan with more questions than answers.

New Zealanders cannot presently name their next coach, nor captain, out-half or midfielders, never mind what they will do without the brilliant Ben Smith – on his way to Pau – nor the brutal Brodie Retallick, likely on his way to Japan.

Ireland have their own challenges in 2020 with Joe Schmidt’s departure but by comparison, their list is trifling.

Indeed, to understand the scale of changes coming to New Zealand rugby – and Ireland’s relative stability – a stocktake is needed.

Here are those who will not be involved with the All Blacks in 2020.

Steve Hansen, Kieran Read, Beauden Barrett, Ben Smith and, in all likelihood, Brodie Retallick. Scrum guru Mike Cron might also decide to finish up The queue does not end there: Aaron Smith, Ryan Crotty, Owen Franks, Dane Coles, Waisake Naholo and Sonny Bill Williams are off contract this year and all may decide the 2023 World Cup is a tournament too far.

Meanwhile, some lesser-known talents tired of a life of the fringes of the All Blacks have already headed north, or have announced their intention to do so. But forget their lack of caps, Charlie Ngatai, now of Lyon, and Matt Proctor, soon to be of Northampton, are superb midfielders whose losses diminish the New Zealand game.

It is quite a roll call of departures. Enough, perhaps, for those outside New Zealand to wonder how its administration got itself into such a position. What has happened to New Zealand Rugby’s famously meticulous succession planning?

DROP CAP

The truth is more complex. In fact, the challenges facing New Zealand in terms of player retention are so severe that the 2020 All Blacks, depleted as they might seem, are an acceptable result for NZ Rugby in a challenging world.

The context needed here is Japan’s Top League. NZ Rugby is operating under the assumption that in 2020 Japan’s domestic competition will stage two seasons in the same calendar year.

If this plays out it will give players such as Barrett and Retallick an unique opportunity to cash in on back-to-back Japanese contracts and then return to New Zealand for the majority of the 2020-2023 World Cup cycle.

Others, such as Smith and Read, will end their All Blacks careers. Barrett and Retallick will at least be back.

What is the attitude in New Zealand to the situation? Well, as tempting it is to portray a nation that is plunged into mourning every time a player goes overseas, it is far more nuanced than that.

First, there is a huge amount of faith in New Zealand’s talent pool to regenerate the All Blacks.

If pushed, Ronan O’Gara would probably say Richie Mo’unga didn’t get enough time against Ireland in November and Crusaders fans would nod their heads in agreement. The No 10 is extremely well regarded.

Second, there is an acknowledgment at executive level in New Zealand that the desire for players to have an overseas experience is understandable and does not necessarily diminish their desire to play for the All Blacks.

As an example, take Barrett’s boss at the Hurricanes Super Rugby franchise, Avan Lee. Lee, a Kiwi, spent nine years in Dublin in two stints before returning to New Zealand to apply that experience to the Hurricanes job.

So, when Barrett knocks on his door and says he wants to go overseas for a year Lee can understand why.

Third, NZ Rugby is acutely aware that as a small country at the bottom of the world New Zealand has economic limitations. It cannot match what is on offer in other countries and if it can manufacture deals – with Japanese clubs, which are replete with Kiwi coaches – that make sure the Barretts and Retallicks are absent for one year only, it will do so.

Yet if those likely departures can be characterised as necessary evils and largely accepted by the rugby public, the identity of the next All Blacks coach has the potential to be a much more divisive debate.

Kiwis are as mesmerised by the possibilities that Schmidt offers as much as they are antipathetic towards assistant coach Ian Foster, who is the frontrunner for the job should Schmidt decide to take a break from coaching, as he has signalled.

It is somewhat unfair. Talk to a Super Rugby coach about matters such as All Blacks player management meetings and it becomes apparent how much influence Foster has.

In these sit-downs the people you’d expect to be there are there – Hansen and the respective strength and conditioning coaches. But Foster will be involved as well. The All Blacks are coached by a partnership, albeit with Hansen as the senior partner.

Nonetheless, in the public’s mind there is no doubt Hansen’s departure will leave a hole that Foster cannot fill.

Hansen was there in 2007, fronting up to the public after the infamous loss to France in Cardiff. He was there at Eden Park in 2011, the grinning architect of the lineout move that resulted in Tony Woodcock’s try against France in the final, and he was there in 2015 as Richie McCaw’s brilliant side swept aside all their rivals.

By comparison, Foster cannot escape the label as the head coach who won nothing at the Chiefs, the same franchise Glasgow’s Dave Rennie steered to two Super Rugby titles when he took over.

If Foster gets the top job it will be a tick for continuity but it will not win the popular vote.

And then there is Read. As a captain, he is replaceable, by the measured and clever Sam Whitelock of the Crusaders. But as a No 8, he is currently without peer. Forget that dropped ball against Ireland and think more about his work rate, lineout brilliance and defence.

All Blacks legend Buck Shelford recently told me that he liked Liam Squire as a No 8 but that would create a gap on the blindside. The reality is that the All Blacks are waiting for Akira Ioane to realise his immense potential at No 8 but that is not a given.

The bigger picture, then, is this. The All Blacks remain the benchmark in world rugby. But the difficulties in maintaining that status will be laid bare in 2020, the year that the All Blacks have to start again.