Kidney right to drop O'Gara, jury out on Jackson decision
By Ian Cusack
As his team travel to Murrayfield for an encounter which could not only make or break Ireland’s current Six Nations campaign but also determine his future at the helm of Irish rugby, Declan Kidney has abandoned his conservative nature making possibly the boldest selection call of his tenure.
The defeat to England cost Ireland more than just momentum as the likes of Gordon D’Arcy, Simon Zebo and Mike McCarthy joined the injury list while a moment of recklessness from Cian Healy ensured his absence against the Scots on Sunday.
But it would have been the sight of flyhalf Jonathan Sexton making his way gingerly from the field of play after the half hour mark that most concerned Declan Kidney.
Enter Ronan O’Gara, equipped with 127 caps experience. Once a golden boy of Irish rugby, ROG has had to settle for the title of ‘trusty deputy’ behind Sexton over the past three years, but his status as second in line for the green number 10 jersey hasn’t been called into question, until now.
Kidney’s decision to start uncapped 21-year-old Paddy Jackson ahead of the veteran represents more than a brave selection choice, it’s a changing of the guard, a demotion to third choice, even if it is only temporary.
Kidney and O’Gara have known each other for over twenty years, their relationship dates back to the days when they saw each other as teacher and pupil at Presentation Brothers College.
To see the coach who has steered him from Munster Schools Senior Cup success to Heineken Cup and Grand Slam glory bypass him and put his faith in a novice, untested at this level, must have rattled O’Gara.
Much like any sporting coach entrusted with the national team, Kidney has his critics, as evidenced by the distasteful ‘Kidney Clock’ online which is counting down the days until the Cork man’s current IRFU deal expires.
The anti-Kidney brigade would have been sharpening their knives regardless of the outhalf selection. If O’Gara was picked and Ireland lost he’d be a fool for overlooking Jackson for the devil he knows. If Jackson falters in Murrayfield the same contingent will lambast Kidney for throwing a youngster in at the deep end.
Throughout his time as Ireland coach Kidney has vowed to pick based on form, before cowering to his conservative instincts and repeatedly naming the XV everyone expected regardless of form.
You get the feeling he forced himself to overcome those conventional instincts when it came to Wednesday’s team announcement.
So much of what Kidney believes in will have been screaming at him to play O’Gara, the player who bounces back no matter what slump he falls into, the cool head, the man who has been there and seen it all and who knows exactly what to expect in Murrayfield on a Six Nations afternoon.
But he is not the form player, far from it. Perhaps a big performance against the Scarlets last weekend would have yielded a different team selection.
But O’Gara almost forced Kidney’s hand by putting in a ponderous eighty minutes which featured three missed penalties and saw him outmanoeuvred by 20-year-old Scarlets pivot Owen Williams. The decision to drop O’Gara is the right one, the decision to play Jackson may not be.
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The risks of playing Jackson are clear. It’s a massive jump, even from Heineken Cup and a huge amount of pressure to put on a 21-year-old. The Ulsterman had a day to forget the last time he was summoned unexpectedly to the big stage when he was preferred to Ian Humphries in last year’s Heineken Cup final.
The biggest challenge for Jackson will be to dictate a game at the top level from flyhalf without the genius of Ruan Pienaar alongside him. So often the South African takes the pressure off Jackson for Ulster by controlling a game from scrum-half, but on Sunday the Belfast man will have to prove he can be the orchestrator behind the scrum.
That Jackson is not the primary goal kicker for Ulster cannot be overlooked. To suddenly take on that duty for your country in Edinburgh will test his nerves, a wobbly first attempt at goal could spell trouble.
Kidney has opted not to safeguard himself on the kicking issue by going for Fergus McFadden who has shown his prowess with the boot when asked to do that job for Leinster. Instead he has gone for Jackson’s Ulster teammate and fellow debutant Luke Marshall whose selection at inside centre is somewhat less surprising given D’Arcy’s injury.
Indeed both Jackson and Marshall impressed in the Ireland select XV 53-0 victory over Fiji which catapulted Craig Gilroy’s to prominence in the international team and Jackson will be grateful for the familiarity in the 10-12 channel.
Ian Madigan’s initial exclusion from the training squad rightfully caused a stir and not just in Leinster. The case for the 23-year-old Dubliner is a compelling one. If Kidney was looking for a like-for-like replacement for Sexton, Madigan is the best fit not to mention a natural goal-kicker who slotted four out of five penalties in Leinster’s win over Treviso last weekend.
Unlike the younger Jackson, Madigan has never looked out of his depth in the Heineken Cup even when asked to do a job at fullback and his European experience dates back to Leinster’s triumphant 2009/10 campaign.
As well as Madigan, another player likely to feel overlooked is Dave Kilcoyne who must have expected to start after Cian Healy’s ban, but he must again be content with a place on the bench as Tom Court comes straight into the starting team.
Court has been on form for Ulster this season but Kidney’s decision not to give Kilcoyne the same vote of confidence Marshall and Jackson were granted is a curious one.
The Ulster loosehead will be locking horns with 30-year-old Geoff Cross at scrum time as Euan Murray’s religious convictions render him unavailable to play on Sundays. Aside from Cross, Scotland are unchanged from the side that beat Italy 34-10.
Ireland’s other changes see Donncha O’Callaghan, who is enjoying something of an Indian summer this season, come in for Mike McCarthy, joining Donnacha Ryan in an all-Munster second-row while Keith Earls gets his chance to impress in what most now believe is his best position, on the wing.
Verdict:
Even without the likes of Sexton, O’Connell, Ferris, D’Arcy, Zebo, Healy you feel this Ireland XV is stronger than Scotland’s and will have more names on Warren Gatland’s Lions squad. The 34-10 score line against Italy flattered the Scots who scored predominantly off Italian errors and turnovers.
Ireland must be wary of a loose kicking game against the likes of Stuart Hogg and Tim Visser and much will hinge on Jackson’s temperament both in open play and from the kicking tee. But as a flat-standing fly-half with good hands, Jackson has the armoury to get a potent Irish backline bursting over the gain line provided Ireland can shade what is set to be a ferocious contest of the back rows at the breakdown.
Ireland to win 19-13
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