Home advantage not a defining factor

Three Irish provinces have achieved one of their early season goals of reaching the quarter-finals of Europe’s premier club competition.

Losing bonus points and scrambling for four try margins are but a distant memory.

Now we are at the business end of the season. And now it’s just all about winning.

And as Leinster, Munster and Ulster will attest, it doesn’t matter if you win ugly.

Seeding in the quarter-finals has historically had a significant impact on results. If you finish in the top four and secure a home quarter-final then statistically your chance of progression is enhanced.

In the four preceding last eight rounds only three teams have won an away quarter-final. Two of those were ultimately crowned champions: Munster in 2008 and Leinster in 2009. In the last decades statistics show that on average there is only one away win every year at the quarter-final stage.

But that trend could change this weekend.

The only home certainty is this evening’s Aviva Stadium clash of Leinster and Cardiff Blues. The hosts come into the tie boosted by victory in a difficult but dour confrontation against their nemesis in Thomond Park.

They also welcome back their talisman, Brian O’Driscoll, who will be gunning to make an impact after his injury lay-off.

In contrast, Cardiff have lost their two best players and influential leaders. Jamie Roberts and Sam Warburton had a massive impact in the Six Nations and are front runners for starting positions in the 2013 Lions test side. The unwanted media attention Gavin Henson has attracted with his antics will undoubtedly be a distraction also.

It was always going to be difficult for Cardiff. Now it is impossible.

The most tantalising clash is the Irish derby between Munster and Ulster.

Munster have the best record of any team in Heineken Cup quarter-finals. They have played 12 and won nine. Three of those victories were on the road and they have yet to be beaten in a home tie at this stage of the competition.

However, when it’s an all-Irish contest, history and statistics are meaningless.

This could only be compared to a staring match and one wonders who will blink first? Ulster will be full of confidence following their trouncing of Aironi. Ruan Pienaar will be their lynchpin and, along with Ian Humphreys, will be keen to get the ball to the danger men Darren Cave and Andrew Trimble, once Stephen Ferris and Pedrie Wannenburg have done the damage.

Ulster will have no fear in Thomond Park, having won there in the recent past.

Tony McGahan’s men are smarting following last weekend’s home defeat by Leinster. But Munster do redemption better than most teams. Their psyche will be focused on preventing back-to-back home losses to Irish opposition and a win against Ulster would be a form of absolution.

A good start in a derby is vital. So too is discipline. A team can’t afford to concede silly, kickable penalties and hand the opposition the chance to put daylight between the sides. Usually when a team goes two scores clear in a derby it is a margin that is rarely pulled back. Whoever can get that early lead will almost certainly win. This one is too close to call.

The other two quarter-finals also have an Irish flavour. Michael Bradley and Mark McCall, two former Irish international players and successful provincial coaches, respectively lead Edinburgh and Saracens into battle this weekend.

They have both done fantastically to reach this stage and earn home quarter-finals. However, they have unenviable task of hosting the two juggernauts of French rugby. Toulouse stumbled through their pool stages, losing twice, but their recent domestic form has put them at the top of the French Championship. Clermont sit behind them in second and will be eager for success in their centenary year. It is hard to see either French team’s progression being halted this weekend.