What odds a Leinster v Sarries final?

IF THIS were any other competition beginning less than three weeks after so compelling a World Cup final, the weary yawns of sated rugby fans may have drowned out the hype.

Instead, we embark on a 17th Heineken Cup campaign that promises to pick up where New Zealand and France left off on October 23.

In fact, there is no reason to suggest Europe’s clubs cannot top their Test counterparts in terms of spectacle. Can we honestly say any game at the World Cup beat the drama that unfolded in Cardiff in May when Leinster came back from the dead to overcome Northampton and win the title for a second time in three seasons? Just a look down the fixtures suggests there will be plenty more where that came from on the road to the final at Twickenham next May.

There’s no World Cup hangover here, just some intriguing questions. Can Leinster, maintained as joint favourites with Toulouse by the bookies despite having Brian O’Driscoll ruled out for the entire campaign, become the first side since Leicester in 2002 to retain the title? Will English clubs continue their 100% success rate in Twickenham finals and break the Irish-French domination of the last four seasons?

Can Connacht, on their Heineken Cup debut, confound the odds and take down four-time champions Toulouse in a dream opening home fixture next weekend? And will a Munster squad, champions in 2008 but now deep in transition, bounce back from the despair of a first pool-stage exit in 13 seasons and return to the knockout rounds?

Leinster will miss the talismanic O’Driscoll but have a game plan and personnel to get the job done without him. They had an extremely tough route to last season’s final, seeing off Clermont, Racing Metro and Saracens before dispatching Leicester and Toulouse and then coming from 22-6 down at half-time in the final to defeat Saints 33-22. That experience, in which Jonny Sexton, not O’Driscoll, was the star turn, will be a cornerstone for Leinster’s young players and Schmidt’s side deserve their co-favouritism.

Whether Toulouse do is another matter. The French contingent as a whole last time out were a disappointment but having reasserted their claim as Top 14 top dogs last season and started the new season in bristling form, Thierry Dusautoir’s men have it within them to do the same in Europe. They face a tough challenge in Pool 6 from undefeated English league leaders Harlequins but if anyone knows how to wage twin campaigns with equal success it is Toulouse coach Guy Noves.

Northampton’s motivation this season is easy to source as the scars from their Millennium mauling by Leinster will still be raw and they will pose a tough opening opponent for Munster. Tony McGahan’s men have been written off but there is much to be said for Munster pride and they will not roll over as easily as they appeared to last year.

Connacht will throw open the Sportsground next Saturday, November 18, to Toulouse on a landmark day and aside from the celebratory aspect of the day, the combination of Eric Elwood’s side being pumped by the occasion and the French aristocrats not liking the somewhat austere surroundings and potentially trying conditions could align for an upset.

From the south of France to the west of Ireland won’t be the competition’s most arduous journey, though, as Saracens take their home game in January against Biarritz to Cape Town. With former Springbok captain John Smit added to their ranks, it may prove an ideal stopping off point on a possible procession to Twickenham.

What am I bid a Leinster-Saracens final come May?