A nation staring down a barrel

ALEX FERGUSON, who has enjoyed a bit of success over the years, would call this “squeaky bum time.”

In New Zealand we have another term for this stage of a World Cup — heart-attack time.

The knock-out stages of World Cups have not been kind to the All Blacks and, by extension, they’ve been brutal for New Zealand’s loyal, but short-fused fans.

Since 1987, the year after Alex took the reins at Manchester United, the All Blacks have had six goes at emulating their initial success and have failed, most often miserably, every time.

Excuses? We’ve had the lot, from food poisoning in 1995, to the cheating French in 1999, to the cheating ref in 2007.

The All Blacks haven’t been fussy about where they’ve failed. In 1995 it was the final, in 2007 it was — shock, horror — the quarter-final. The rest of the time it’s been the semi-finals.

Twice their campaign has been brought to a thudding halt by the French, once by Nelson Mandela, but most painfully, we’ve twice lost to Australia in semi-finals.

The first occasion was at Lansdowne Road, where the locals ditched the arrogant All Blacks to take the Wallabies under their collective wing. With the brilliance of David Campese in full bloom, they didn’t need your help, but thanks anyway.

Eight years ago, in Sydney, a Carlos Spencer intercept pass sent Stirling Mortlock under the posts and New Zealand scuttling back across the Tasman.

Trying to summarise the trans-Tasman relationship is difficult in a restricted space, but it has been described in the past as that of a big brother-little brother sibling rivalry.

It will do, but it’s not entirely accurate. At least little brothers eventually grow up.

Ever since the opportunity to become the seventh state of Australia was declined, New Zealand was destined to live in the shadow of its western neighbours.

They’re bigger than us; have more people; better weather (if sunburn is your thing); more interesting predators; they earn higher salaries; and, most gallingly, they’re better at nearly every sport.

If we’re being honest, we’ve got two things on them — race relations and rugby.

We’ve always been better at rugby, yet they’ve won two World Cups to our one. Now the sworn enemy once more stands in the way of New Zealand claiming what many feel is rightfully theirs.

Can you blame the Land of the Long White Cloud for being on edge? It wouldn’t be so bad if their coach, Robbie ‘Dingo’ Deans, wasn’t as New Zealand as lamb chops and gumboots, or if their most creative player, Quade Cooper, wasn’t a Maori from the south Waikato town of Tokoroa.

Even then, logic suggests the All Blacks should prevail. They’re playing on a ground, Eden Park, where they have not lost a test since 1994 and where Australia have not won since 1986. In head-to-head battles since Deans took over the Wallabies, Graham Henry’s men lead 11-3.

This year alone, Australia have been defeated by teams — Samoa and Ireland — that New Zealand would never dream of losing to (just joking)... and yet there is a sense of impending doom that is difficult to define and even harder to shake.

We’d feel better if Daniel Carter was here and Richie McCaw and Kieran Read were fully fit. But they’re not.

Carter’s

replacement, Colin Slade, didn’t last much longer, but many thought the man who will step into No 10 this weekend should have been picked ahead of him anyway.

Aaron Cruden is a great story. Whether he’s a great player remains to be seen, but he’ll have a chance to write his name in legend at Eden Park. Cruden (22), whose father Stu played rugby for Manawatu with Munster assistant coach Jason Holland, had enjoyed a stellar schoolboy career and was on the verge of a Super rugby contract when he discovered a lump in his groin. Cancer was diagnosed and he had a testicle removed before undergoing chemotherapy.

The way he has bounced back has been testament to his off-field courage, but it is his on-field bravery that will be tested by Australia.

They have already indicated they will send a few big boys down his channel to test his tackling technique and wear him out. There will be no place to hide.

So while fans here would have sat back and enjoyed this morning’s action between Wales and France, but there will be an edge tomorrow.

Police will be on alert. Incidences of domestic violence spike sharply when the All Blacks lose.

The sad thing is, that’s not a joke.

When the Wallabies were certain of their semi-final win in 2003, captain George Gregan mockingly turned to All Black Byron Kelleher and said, “Four more years, boys”.

If it hurt like a dagger in the chest then, imagine how painful the echo would be this time around.

*Dylan Cleaver is a senior sports reporter for the New Zealand Herald.