Give us games to remember

THE eyes of the rugby world will be firmly focused on New Zealand — the country as much as its famed All Blacks — over the course of the next seven weeks as only the seventh World Cup ever played will bescrutinised in minute detail.

Of the three tournaments staged since the advent of professionalism — 1999, 2003 and 2007 — only the Australian version eight years ago, won by England, lives in the memory. The 1999 event introduced the concept of massed defence when Australia strolled to victory, conceding only one try on the way — and that when their second string encountered the USA in Thomond Park. They were the first international side to introduce a full-time defence coach and the results, if not the spectacle, was dire to watch. Only that magnificent semi-final, when the French overturned a 14-point deficit to beat New Zealand to record a shock 43-31 win in a classic, managed to save the tournament.

The 2003 World Cup in Australia stands out as much for the magnificence with which it was organised by the sports-mad Aussies as for the quality of the rugby. It was truly memorable. France, however, four years ago was not only a nightmare from an Irish point of view, given what transpired for Eddie O’Sullivan’s men, but was also shocking to watch.

It was the era of the aerial ping-pong with sides testing each other’s nerve under the high ball. The IRB had no option but to tweak law interpretation, hopefully resulting in a better product this time around. Once again the French saved the day in 2007 with yet another shock victory over the All Blacks against all the odds in the Cardiff quarter-final. South Africa eventually won out by boring people to death.

With sides now looking to retain possession for longer periods — interspersed with far more astute tactical kicking — I have high hopes that this World Cup has the capacity to deliver some great entertainment. Certainly the rugby-mad New Zealanders will make it impossible to escape the fact that some massive global event is taking place in their country and they will make the most of it. They might as well — this will be the last World Cup they will host for a long, long time.

Money is king now and the IRB have already accepted this World Cup will be a financial disaster. In some respects they have been lucky as the country who should have hosted this tournament, Japan, may well have had to cancel due to the devastating effects of the recent earthquakes.

Not that New Zealand has escaped destructive acts of nature either. Christchurch, due to host a number of games, including two quarter-finals, was also devastated by a similar natural disaster. With several of the All Black squad from that ravaged city, they are on a mission. New Zealand’s two star turns, captain Richie McCaw and Dan Carter, are proud sons of the Crusaders and they would love nothing more than to lift the spirits of their devastated region by delivering the Webb Ellis trophy. Canterbury has been denied a fixture due to the damage caused, which is like hosting the World Cup in Ireland with no games in Thomond Park.

The one feature of the 2007 World Cup that took everyone by surprise was the performance of the so-called minnows, with Ireland in particular on the receiving end of some very scary moments against Namibia and especially Georgia. Both England and Scotland would do well to remember the physical challenge the Georgians brought to the table four years ago when they meet up.

Against all the odds Fiji made the quarter-finals by disposing of Wales and there is every chance that the Fijians, along with near neighbours Samoa, will pose a handful for everyone in their pool. Every tournament needs that degree of unpredictability and Pool D, with Fiji and Samoa pitted against holders South Africa and Warren Gatland’s Wales, certainly has the capacity to provide that.

Ireland’s build up has not been without the usual drama and uncertainty that seems to follow the side into every World Cup and that was reflected in Declan Kidney’s final squad selection with Tomás O’Leary and Luke Fitzgerald the biggest names to lose out. Four defeats on the bounce in the warm-up tests and the loss of David Wallace has done nothing for morale either.

At least the drama on this occasion has happened before the team even travelled and let’s hope it stays that way.

On form and match fit, this Irish side is capable of matching the best and of putting it up to Australia in their key pool encounter. However, it remains to be seen just when the benefits of the five warm-up games clicks into place. September 17 in Auckland would do nicely for that Wallaby test but that looks a tall order at this stage.

The 2007 event was gut-wrenching from an Irish perspective as many of that squad were at their peak and the shortcomings in preparation were central to their demise. Kidney took those lessons on board and while he suffered a fair bit of pain in August for his efforts, it will be fascinating to see if the squad benefits in the longer term from that gruelling schedule of Test matches.

So who will prevail on this occasion? All the smart money is on New Zealand and has been for a while. By winning the Tri Nations, however, Australia are now firmly back in the frame. New Zealand have been the most consistent team over the last three seasons but then again they were also in that position entering at least three of the last four tournaments. To win the World Cup, you only have to be at your best for four weeks.

England showed in 2007 by reaching the final that it is even possible to become reborn in the tournament itself after they suffered the humiliation of losing by 36-3 to South Africa in the pool stages. Ireland need to take heart from that.

The biggest challenge for Graham Henry is to manage a programme that caters for the demands of touring your own country. At least their two recent defeats at the hands of South Africa and Australia will dampen expectation levels somewhat.

It is also vital that Carter and McCaw remain injury free for the duration. It seems incredible given the talent at their disposal that the New Zealand management have failed in their efforts to find suitable back up to Carter in that key out-half role. Aaron Cruden was tried but failed miserably while Carter’s long-term understudy Stephen Donald didn’t even make the squad and has since joined Bath.

Henry has pinned his faith on Colin Slade to fill the gap but if his showing against South Africa in Port Elizabeth recently is anything to go by, New Zealand are still vulnerable. Four years ago when Carter was off the field injured, New Zealand were incapable of engineering a drop goal at the death to bury the French. It is possible that history could repeat itself.

The biggest threat to the hosts will come from Australia who, as always, have timed their run to perfection. Robbie Deans has done an excellent job over the last few seasons in introducing some outstanding young backs and his inside knowledge from coaching many of the All Blacks side at the Crusaders is bound to stand to the Wallabies. They have the class but are still vulnerable up front.

As always, because of their sheer physicality, South Africa will be very difficult to beat and despite the shortcomings of their coach Peter de Villiers, the Springboks will push New Zealand all the way. Much will depend on whether de Villiers sticks with his trusted captain John Smit — despite clear evidence he is past his best — over the explosive presence of Sharks hooker Bismark du Plessis. By selecting Smit he is undermining his team.

Incredibly, given their shocking form over the last 12 months, France still appear the best equipped of the northern hemisphere sides to challenge. They have the X factor but are mentally scarred.

Ireland have the players to deliver at this level but need a spark early in the tournament to lift them.

For once, it would be great if the real Irish side stood up to be counted on the World Cup stage.

That is the least the likes of Brian O’Driscoll, Ronan O’Gara and Paul O’Connell deserve in what will be their last World Cup.