Eight days that will shape the season

SO THAT’S what Purgatory feels like. Forget about the weather – two weeks into the New Year and practically no rugby.

Cabin fever can become a real problem, so much so that when I informed a desperate rugby nut that the Leicester-Wasps Premiership game had survived the freeze and was live on Sky Sports, he hugged me like a long-lost sibling. At least now a remedy is at hand – Heineken Cup, we missed ya.

As it happened, that Premiership game reinforced my view that the scrum has once again become far more central to the outcome of every game. In Munster’s narrow defeat in Ravenhill the previous week, it was the key difference between winning and losing, with Ulster dominant in that phase. For the second week in a row, Wasps were dismantled in the scrum and subsequently paid the price, losing to both Newcastle and the Tigers.

Leicester have unearthed a gem in local young tight head prop, Dan Cole, who looks destined for a long and distinguished career. Martin Johnson could do worse than blood him soon, with the 2011 World Cup now coming sharply into focus.

Munster’s scrummaging woes this season have not been helped by a succession of injuries to props Marcus Horan, Julien Brugnaut, Dave Ryan, Darragh Hurley and a six-week suspension to John Hayes. While the loss of Jerry Flannery for large portions of their season has also been a factor, the positive impact of his two replacements Denis Fogarty and Damien Varley has softened the blow.

Munster’s season will now be dictated by what happens over the next two weekends. On paper, the trip to Treviso looks inviting, but I’m sure that Perpignan thought as much before suffering a shock defeat in their opening Heineken Cup game back in October. Munster will not be fooled by a poor start to 2010 by Benetton Treviso who have surprisingly lost their last two Italian league games. However a flu bug in the camp was a contributory factor.

Munster would be far better remembering that but for a heroic bit of tracking back by Doug Howlett – despite a torn hamstring – they could have been trailing by 17 points in Thomond Park when the sides last met. Munster’s scrum was under pressure that night as it had been in the opening game in Franklins Gardens. Offered a penalty under the posts in that contest with the last play of the game and trailing by four points, Paul O’Connell opted for a tapped penalty instead of an attacking scrum because of a lack of a stable platform.

The common denominator in those two games was that Hayes was unavailable. His impact in the Stade Aime Giral against Perpignan was such that Munster had a solid scrum to operate from, with Wian du Preez also showing his true value on the loose head side. The problem now is that Hayes has not played since that memorable outing in France prior to Christmas and that lack of competitive scrummaging attrition will not help his cause. He is at the stage where games are more beneficial than training.

Northampton will also be stronger in the scrum next week than the opening Heineken Cup pool game with Scotland’s British and Irish Lion, Euan Murray, now restored to the front row after injury. For Munster to prevail, their collective work on the scrum engagement must improve immeasurably.

Scrummaging is as much a mental exercise as a physical one where all eight forwards must be tuned in and focused on getting their timing right. Too frequently at Ravenhill, the front five failed to engage as a unit and even when they got the initial hit right, they failed to follow through or chase the hit, which meant they bounced off the opposition front row. On a frozen surface, that is a recipe for disaster.

Munster have been down this road on so many occasions that the prospect of the opposition targeting their scrum will hardly come as a surprise. It’s vital though they set down a marker early to dampen the enthusiasm of a very competent Italian front row.

A victory of any kind will be sufficient to put Munster in pole position for the Northampton showdown on Friday week at Thomond Park. There is even the possibility a win for Munster and a defeat for the Saints at home to Perpignan would see them qualify for the quarter-final even before the last pool game in Limerick. That scenario is unlikely, however, with Perpignan all but out of the tournament already and unlikely to travel to Franklins Gardens with a full deck.

Munster must be ultra professional in their approach on Saturday and forget about the lack of recent game time for the front-line internationals.

They must concentrate on winning the game. Yes, a bonus-point victory would enhance the prospects of securing a home quarter-final but that cannot be a priority.

Leinster have been more disadvantaged by the big freeze than Munster with two of their Magners League games over the festive period failing to beat the conditions. That said, most of their internationals saw game time on St Stephen’s Day against Ulster. Their opponents Brive have been shocking in this tournament so far and along with Viadana have failed to register a single point in four contests. As a former winner of the Heineken Cup (1997), that is a shocking statistic.

Leinster, in a dogfight with London Irish to top Pool Six, must suppress any enthusiasm Brive bring to Dublin early on; once they do, they should win comfortably. The fact that the Exiles have been forced to transfer the all-important last pool fixture next Saturday week from their home at the Madejski Stadium to Twickenham is a bonus for the reigning champions who will attract a sizeable following to London.

There is the very real prospect that Leinster, despite their excellent form of late, may be left fighting for one of the two best runners-up slots should they lose to London Irish and as a result they have to chase a bonus point win this weekend to give themselves every chance of a back-door entrance should they lose at Twickenham.

Given that all pool games in round six must start simultaneously, it would pose major problems if the weather woes that wiped out the sporting calendar in recent weeks were to hit the Heineken Cup this weekend. It would also spoil the drama and uncertainty that always accompanies the last round of games as any number of teams fight for survival into the last eight.

The new initiative this season where the third, fourth and fifth best-placed runners up in the pools are offered a lifeline in the Amlin Challenge Cup is also set to add greatly to the range of permutations available on the last weekend.