Things just got serious
With the necessity for a full-on training run for that test team today, the players will be told of the management’s final deliberations this morning. It can be a difficult time, especially for players who were deemed virtual certainties only weeks ago. Shane Williams is a classic case in point. The current IRB world player of the year was a shoo-in for selection from the time he rounded Bryan Habana on the Welsh tour of South Africa last summer. His form had deserted him in the Six Nations but on the hard grounds of the high veldt he was expected to excel. Instead his Ospreys colleagues Tommy Bowe and Lee Byrne have stolen his thunder and Williams has become a peripheral figure on tour.
That is why I am always reluctant to forecast a Lions test side in advance of a tour. So much happens both in training and in the games, including injuries, that it is a bit of a fool’s errand. To prove the case on this occasion I think that Stephen Ferris and Jerry Flannery would have walked into the test side had they remained injury free while Tomas O’Leary would certainly have exerted more pressure on Mike Phillips than either Harry Ellis or Mike Blair.
For the Lions to have any chance of winning this series they must beat the Springboks on Saturday. Only once in the 120-year history of the Lions have they managed to win a series after losing the opening test. That was on the Australian tour in 1989 in similar circumstances to now, when we were still unbeaten. We were in great shape going into that opening test but got the shock of our lives and had to fight tooth and nail to recover the series. With the second and third tests of this tour at altitude in Pretoria and Johannesburg, the Lions must pull off a smash-and-grab job in Durban on Saturday when the Springboks will be at their most vulnerable. Defeating the world champions would send shockwaves around the rugby community in South Africa and might inflict sufficient damage in their psyche to create panic in the build up to the second test. That is exactly what happened 12 years ago.
From the outset I have always believed that the one major advantage the Lions have in their makeup is an experienced coaching ticket that is very familiar with each other and how they operate. That said, the odds in the professional era are stacked against the tourists as they attempt a crash course in team-building and tactical appreciation against opponents who have been together for several seasons.
Springbok coach Pieter de Villiers, who replaced Jake White after their World Cup triumph two years ago, was a compromise candidate and in a repeat of the situation that pertained back in 1987, when Carel du Plessis was at the helm for that series against the Lions and was out of his depth, de Villiers has yet to convince that he is capable of operating at this level.
To his credit, he leans heavily on his assistants Gary Gold and Dick Muir and is not afraid to seek outside counsel. Only recently he invited the Springbok squad of 1997 into camp to share their experiences of playing against the Lions 12 years ago with the current squad. By all accounts it had a big influence on John Smit and his men.
Four years ago in New Zealand, Clive Woodward picked a Lions test team based on past deeds, leaning heavily on several great players who had won the World Cup for England two years previously. It did not work as it was plain to see for anyone who cared to look that several of that class were not performing at anything like the same level as they had in the past. Yesterday, when de Villiers revealed his side for the first test, it was clear that he too is selecting from the memory bank with a few players chosen who have either been injured or out of form in recent times. It is a gamble he is prepared to take.
The most interesting selection however is that of Hindrick Brussow, only called into the Springbok squad on Monday, for the injured Schalk Burger. Many expected de Villiers to opt for Dannie Roussow but in bravely picking Brussow the Springbok coach has achieved a better balance to his back row. He has rewarded a player who destroyed the Lions at the breakdown for the Cheetahs and it will be interesting to see if McGeechan now opts for any bolters in his line up.
Elsewhere, the South African team is along expected lines, the only surprise being only five starters from the all conquering Blue Bulls. In opting for Ruan Piennar at out half over the Bulls points machine Mornie Steyn, de Villiers is risking a player whose season has been severely disrupted by injury and as a converted scrum half has very limited experience in the pivotal role. With Francois Steyn selected at full back, South Africa are also taking a risk in starting without a proven international goal kicker. I thought they would have learned the folly of that from 1997. It is a selection, Brussow apart, that the Lions will be happy with and offers them a chance of creating a shock in Durban.
Meanwhile, Ian McGeechan will be happy to have maintained an unbeaten record in Port Elizabeth yesterday even if, with the possible exception of Ronan O’Gara, nobody put their hands up for test selection.
The breakdown once again proved a problem area for the Lions, not surprising given the makeshift nature of their back row. The management is now in a position to finalise their matchday 22 with the added advantage of knowing exactly what the Springboks will be throwing at them.
From today, this Lions tour enters a different stratosphere. Up to now, the South African public have responded poorly to under strength sides pitted against the tourists at ticket prices over three times that of their normal Super 14 level. They responded by staying at home but will be out in force from here on in. On the field, the Lions have faced a mixed bag knowing a massive juggernaut is on the way. The teams have prepared in different ways.
We are about to find out very quickly which camp is primed and ready.
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