Kidney has little margin for error

THE autumn internationals, or the Guinness Series as they have become known in Ireland, had become a bit of a damp squib in recent seasons with nothing tangible at stake but pride.

In common with the summer sojourns undertaken by their typically understrength northern hemisphere counterparts, these tours are generally an exercise in fulfilling fixtures in order to bolster the coffers of the host nations, which in turn fuels the survival of the professional game.

This year is slightly different.

The catalyst for change, especially for Ireland and Scotland, is the World Cup draw scheduled for next month and the effect that the IRB rankings will have on that significant event. In addition, South Africa, with tests against Wales, Scotland and England, know they will be under the microscope of the Lions management after a poor Tri Nations campaign that saw the newly-crowned World champions rooted to the bottom of the table.

With that Lions tour looming they will be looking to recreate the winning aura that surrounded Jake White’s side. Their coach, Pieter de Villiers, is also under pressure as he continues with his rather strange selection policies — the latest of which sees iconic captain and hooker John Smit selected as a tight head prop and scrum-half Ruan Pienaar handed the out-half slot for the game against Wales on Saturday.

Martin Johnson’s managerial debut also makes England’s games compulsive viewing this month.

Closer to home, Declan Kidney’s elevation to the summit of Irish rugby will be dissected even more closely as he assumes command with a demanding series of games against Canada, New Zealand and Argentina.

Kidney has being thrown in at the deep end with the draw for the 2011 World Cup on December 1.

With a current ranking of 8th place, a mere 0.26 of a ranking point ahead of Scotland in 9th, Kidney’s task over the next three weeks is simple. At worst he must maintain that position. Any slippage below that mark and Ireland will again be placed in a ‘pool of death’ with two higher ranking sides with only two advancing to the quarter-final.

Given the IRFU’s strategic plan has already set Kidney with a target of reaching the World Cup semi-finals for the first time in New Zealand in 2011, the former Munster coach has little room for error. It is of no consolation that the current ranking is a by product of the previous regime when Ireland lost ten of their last 14 internationals.

Always a stickler on detail, Kidney has nominated a specific person within the IRFU to update him on how each result around Europe impacts on Ireland’s position. Given the complex nature of how the ranking system works, this is a wise move. For example, when Argentina scored a last minute try against Scotland in Buenos Aires last summer, reducing the Scots margin of victory to 12 points; it prevented Scotland from overtaking Ireland into 8th place. The margins are that tight. Therefore Kidney will know the implications of the Scotland v South Africa result which kicks off a few hours before Ireland’s game against New Zealand on Saturday week before his team take to the field.

Because Canada are more than ten points behind Ireland in the rankings, Kidney’s side will not receive any points for beating them this weekend.

Should Scotland produce a shock in Murrayfield on Saturday and beat New Zealand then Ireland will immediately be placed at a huge disadvantage.

APART from all of this Kidney must also prepare a side for the first time at this level while also integrating a new management team, working together for the first time. At least there is the comfort of having experienced international heads on board in Gert Smal and Alan Gaffney, both of whom have been at the coal face of international rugby in recent times with South Africa and Australia respectively. I am particularly looking forward to watching the influence of Smal develop over the coming months. He was responsible for the structure and organisation of the Springbok pack that scattered all before them in winning the World Cup. His presence should also help to re-energise the efforts of many of the Munster pack on the international stage.

In announcing his first team yesterday, Kidney caught many observers by surprise in promoting several of the younger brigade, including a welcome first cap for Keith Earls. In declaring last week that he would not “experiment” against Canada some scribes took that to mean a reliance on the tried and trusted. With Kidney you must listen carefully to what he is saying. The implication was that a player, despite his age, must earn his cap. I couldn’t agree more. In his eyes all these young players are up to the demands of international rugby. There is also a recognition that the likes of John Hayes and David Wallace, who look certain to start against New Zealand and Argentina, would benefit from not playing on three successive Saturdays.

The inclusion of Shane Jennings is interesting as he is clearly in the management’s thoughts for a starting position alongside Wallace and Jamie Heaslip for the game against the All Blacks in an effort to match the pace and expertise of Richie McCaw and company at the breakdown.

The back three of Earls, Rob Kearney and Tommy Bowe looks particularly exciting, as does the potential offered by the new midfield combination of Luke Fitzgerald and Brian O’Driscoll.

Canada’s modest victory over Portugal last weekend suggests only a token resistance will be offered in Limerick on Saturday. For the next generation of Irish stars however it provides the ideal opportunity to create a few selection headaches for the management ahead of the more demanding tasks ahead.