Everything points to an Irish victory

NEVER BEFORE has an Irish side played for so valuable a prize as such overwhelming favourites.

In the build up to this game, it has been difficult to meet anyone who could envisage anything other than an Irish win. Can Scotland spoil the party? In sport anything is possible. But on the basis of the evidence presented in the championship to date all indicators point to a convincing Irish victory.

This is a highly experienced Irish team, at the end of a long international season. At this stage last year they it stood on the brink of an even greater prize, the Grand Slam. In the end, there were no complaints when England comprehensively beat them en route to securing the World Cup. The experience earned in the build up to that game will stand to the squad today.

Last year’s disappointment, allied to their comprehensive defeat by France in the World Cup quarterfinal, will help focus the minds of the players. In the recent past they have experienced too many disappointments. For that reason alone, I cannot see complacency as an issue today. Assuming the mental preparation is right, the outcome will be down to performance on the field. In that respect, Ireland are far superior to our visitors.

Former Leinster coach Matt Williams has taken over the reins at a difficult time for Scottish rugby. There is serious disharmony among the clubs and a dearth of quality players at international level. They have now reached the last game of the championship staring down the barrel of a white wash. Having spoken to some former Scottish players during the week it is clear that confidence is at an all time low.

The key to Irish success today is to concentrate on their own game. If the various units within the team perform to the level that we have seen in recent weeks, then the foundations for victory will be laid.

While Scotland still retain a competitive forward unit, it is behind the scrum that they have encountered greatest difficulty. The most intriguing clash today will be out of touch. Throughout the championship, Ireland’s line out has been hailed for the magnificence of its execution. Yet almost unnoticed, Scotland statically boast the most successful line out in the tournament with the highest percentage of wins on their own throw and most steals against the opposition. Certainly the Scots have the ammunition to create difficulties for Ireland in this vital sector. In the past Scott Murray has always asked questions of Malcolm O’Kelly. They also have Stuart Grimes, Jason White and Simon Taylor to apply further pressure on Paul O’Connell and Simon Easterby.

To date, Ireland have passed every examination in this sector. Should they continue to be successful in securing possession in the air, then their greater upper body strength should ensure their maul will create serious damage on the ground.

Scotland’s other major strength lies in their defensive organisation. When Matt Williams was at the helm in Leinster, they had one of the best defences in European rugby. Against France in Murrayfield the Scots defended heroically at times. In order to survive today they will have to be even better.

When Scotland were at their prime over the last 20 years, the driving force was the quality of their half-backs. In the 80s, Roy Laidlaw and John Rutherford reigned supreme. In the 90s, Gary Armstrong and Craig Chalmers were similarly effective. In recent times the Scots have lacked equivalent quality in this vital area of the field. So far in the tournament they have tried three different combinations. Today, Dan Parks starts a Six Nations game for the first time. As a result, captain Chris Patterson has been shifted to full back. Patterson is one of the few quality backs at Scotland’s disposal. Yet his confidence seems shattered at present.

Elsewhere, Scotland lack any game breakers and despite a reasonable supply of possession in recent games have has been unable to break down opposition defences. The mid-field partnership of Henderson and Phillips, while physically imposing, possesses nothing like the attacking flair of Brian O’Driscoll and Gordon D’arcy. Even in the adverse conditions that prevailed in Lansdowne Road last Saturday, D’arcy showed some amazing footwork.

Another vital ingredient for Ireland is patience. Against Italy last Saturday, Ireland forced their game too much. Knowing they possessed a more potent attacking force, they tried the impossible at times. Today they must recognise that they do not have to win the game in the first 20 minutes. The Scots are a proud rugby nation. They have encountered severe criticism at home from all quarters and are sure to come out fighting. As a result, the Irish eight must first win the battle up front and play a territorial game. Given the quality of backs at their disposal, the scores will come.